Rank: #10 out of 4859 in peer accuracy at Metaculus for the time period of 2016-2020.
ChristianKl
Karma: 37,020
I think a rational strategy is one that’s robust and will work in the constraints you are operating under instead of one that works in the ivory tower.
The fact that it did not provide convincing evidence in this case is a clue for it not being extremely strong evidence given how evidence gets evaluated in dreams.
But it’s not evidence with a very high information content. The lucid dreaming literature does list which things actually provide high evidence.
What does this have to do with rationalist skills? It seems about running dream checks in a way that doesn’t really work. You want something like a clock, where a physical clock keeps it’s own state in a way that clocks in dreams don’t.
I don’t think so in this context. There’s a huge difference between appeal to “I don’t like X” and providing rational arguments.
There are plenty of arguments that might be made in an attempt to convince beyond just trying to shut off conversation with social pressure.
It’s a task for which there’s good training data. I think it’s plausible that one way to train AGI is to try to train for as many independent tasks with good training data you can think of and hope that it at least partly generalizes.
On LessWrong, if you want to say that something is negative, you should provide a rational argument for why you think something is negative, if you want another person to listen.
I do want a LessWrong that’s primarily about rational argumentation, where we might agree what’s rational but where we strive to convince each other with rational arguments.
I gave her safewords up front
You say this phrase multiple times. I think it would be great if you would be more explicit about the exact mechanics you go through when doing that.
I’m not exactly sure I know what you mean with “fixing a bunch of cases exhaustively” in the current state of medicine. It sounds similar to me like “cure a bunch of cancers exhausively”. It seems quite far outside of what mainstream medicine is equipped to do.
Yeah I didn’t want to imply all chronic pain is psychosomatic
I don’t think that’s a useful way to look at it. Pain arises as a complex interaction between the body and the mind. The pain that patients have at the dentist certainly isn’t psychosomatic, that doesn’t mean that you can shut it off psychologically if you want to do that. It’s just pain.
On the other side, you do need a sense of safety to get acetylcholine release in fascia. Without that you won’t get certain bodily tension released.
If someone has sensor motor amnesia downstream from suppressing an emotion like anger, just shutting of the pain might not solve the psychosomatic issue at it’s base level.
Read jimmy’s sequence. Stopping pain is something that the brain can easily do. It’s just not something the brain usually does because pain is a valuable signal.
If you take RSI, it’s common that people who suffer from it have tight fascia around their nerves that prevent the nerves from moving in their nerve sheets unimpeded. Doing nerve sliding exercises helps address that problem, I wouldn’t go for convincing the brain to just ignore the signal as the first order of business.
some people are just really good at this suggestion business and we just need to teach them how to stop lying and how to scale their work in order to heal chronic pain at scale
There are plenty of hypnotists who are good at what they do and while some hypnotists do lie, there are many that don’t. There are a lot of institutional reasons why hypnosis doesn’t scale in the current system for pain expect for dentists who offer it as an additional services for pain free dentistry instead of pain killers.
Implementing prediction-based medicine would be helpful to get this to scale.
Whether or not proposal are good is always a complex question but yearly tax on electric vehicles is debated by the US congress and it looks like there a bipartisan compromise to do it.
It depends on the how much the procedure of being wired to a body that’s not the original body that the brain has learned to interact with and other surgery side effects as well.
You seem to just assume that those issues can all rounded down to zero, which isn’t a sensible thing to do.
note: in a “real” evolutionary setting, population-level dynamics would come to bear. if such famine shocks were common, surviving bird populations would be ones that develop tendencies toward helping the less fortunate, or valuing diversity.
That’s sounds like “group evolution”. As far as I understand most contemporary biologists don’t think that a significant factor. It sounds to me like what you wrote is mostly speculation uninformed by engaging with the science.
You completely ignored the biology of how much life extension you would actually get even if you solve all the technical challenges. Many old people do get Alzheimer’s and other diseases of old age.
Relearning how to move a new body is a highly nontrivial task. If you have a gut nervous system that never interacted with an awake brain and you suddenly plug an adult brain to it, you should not assume that the process happens without any side effects.
In NLP you would call the person with “very scrunched up body language and talks very quickly” visually dominant. They don’t feel into the words they want to say and thus speak faster. They don’t feel into their body so that the make the adjustments to their body that releases tension and are scrunched up.
There’s plenty of things you can criticize about that model but it does exist.
The link of selection coefficient goes to a concept that defined for a given genotype but for a population as a whole.
If you compare wild rats to lab rats you could say that there an abundance of resources for the lab rats. That does result in evolutionary pressure that differs from the pressure that exist in wild rats but it rewards mutation that result in more offspring per pregnancy and upregulating growth factors potentially at the cost of getting cancer later in life.
What do you mean with evolutionary pressure being very high? What’s a low/high evolutionary pressure environment?
Kessler syndrome might be a feature not a bug. It makes it so that it’s easier to destroy all the space datacenters. It might even be done in a way that can be presented as an accident.
SpaceX is under a legal regime where it’s forbidden to export rocket technology without permission. I would expect that the US government would not want give the permission to escape it’s cone of influence.