Done, except for the digit ratio, because I do not have access to a photocopier or scanner.
ChrisHallquist
One other point I should make: this isn’t just about “someone” being wrong. It’s about an author frequently cited by people in the LessWrong community on an important issue being wrong.
Indeed, I’m not sure I’d know about Taubes at all if not for the LessWrong community.
I’ve already mentioned Eliezer’s “Correct Contrarian Cluster” as an example in another thread, but perhaps it would be helpful to mention other examples:
In a thread where someone asked what the evidence in favor of paleo was, Taubes was the main concrete source that came up. Specifically, Luke mentioned Taubes as the person he’s “usually” referred to on this question, without taking a stand himself and saying he didn’t have time to evaluate the evidence personally.
Sarah Constantin (commenter at Yvain’s blog, author of reply to Yvain’s non-libertarian FAQ, and I just learned a MetaMed VP) has cited Taubes a couple times partly to make a libertarian point.
Jack bringing up Taubes in offline conversation
Yvain’s old blog had a review of Taubes which doesn’t seem to be public right now, but which I remember as partly criticizing Taubes but also lauding him for things that now I don’t think Taubes deserves credit for.
So Taubes was someone I could expect to see cited in the future when the issue of expert consensus gets discussed on LessWrong. In spite of all the people who didn’t like these posts, I think I may have accomplished the goal of getting people to stop citing Taubes.
- Critiquing Gary Taubes, Final: The Truth About Diets and Weight Loss by 4 Jan 2014 5:16 UTC; 25 points) (
- 6 Jan 2014 18:11 UTC; 1 point) 's comment on Critiquing Gary Taubes, Part 4: What Causes Obesity? by (
This. I’ve been trying to write something about Eliezer’s debate with Robin Hanson, but the problem I keep running up against is that Eliezer’s points are not clearly articulated at all. Even making my best educated guesses about what’s supposed to go in the gaps in his arguments, I still ended up with very little.
- Reply to Holden on The Singularity Institute by 10 Jul 2012 23:20 UTC; 69 points) (
- How can I reduce existential risk from AI? by 13 Nov 2012 21:56 UTC; 63 points) (
- A Scholarly AI Risk Wiki by 25 May 2012 20:53 UTC; 28 points) (
- 11 May 2012 8:19 UTC; 7 points) 's comment on Thoughts on the Singularity Institute (SI) by (
One thing I find really interesting about this story is that nobody has any idea what’s going on, and nothing is going according to anyone’s plan.
(1) It seems clear that Hat and Cloak = Quirrellmort. Less clear, but still likely in my view, was is that the point of this plot was to eliminate those friends of Harry’s who would make him resistant to manipulation by Quirrellmort (“Lessson I learned is not to try plotss that would make girl-child friend think I am evil or boy-child friend think I am sstupid,” Ch. 66). Instead, while the plot may be the end of Harry’s friendship with Draco, it’s probably strengthened his bond with the morally pure Hermione, and convinced some members of the Wizengamot that Harry is Voldemort, which probably doesn’t have a place in Quirrellmort’s plans. Furthermore, Quirrellmort may not realize what he’s done.
(2) It occurred to me that giving Draco Veritaserum might have made Lucius realize that Harry is not Voldemort. However, if you look at some of Lucius’ dialog closely, the subtext appears to be, “Dark Lord, you have lost your humanity, and therefore cannot possibly understand the love I have for my son. I am willing to risk your wrath over this, especially since I suspect you are much weaker trapped in the body of a child. And why do you bother telling such ridiculous lies about your motives?” If Lucius knows that Harry confessed to Draco that he had no idea what the conversation in Ch. 38 was about, Lucius probably dismisses that confession as a well-told lie.
(3) Dumbledore believes that Harry has just signaled to Lucius and the other Death Eaters that he will pay any price to save his friends. But Dumbledore is wrong, at least about Lucius. Lucius believes he has just fallen victim to an incomprehensible plot of Harrymort’s, possibly designed solely to torment Lucius, and therefore does not see this as relevant evidence to how far Harry(mort) will go to save his friends in the future. Indeed, Lucius accused Harry of lying when Harry explained that “his stake” in the situation was just that Hermione was Harry’s friend.
(4) Harry is deeply conflicted about his actions. Yet there’s a case to be made that that Harry’s decision making process (the one he’s now feeling conflicted about) was better than Dumbledore’s. Not perfect, but better than Dumbledore’s. Not only is Harry ignorant about the consequences of his actions (as described in points 1-3 above), he was in the no position to know anything at all about those consequences… except for the consequence of “save a little girl from getting eaten by Dementors.” Under those circumstances, Harry’s arguments in Ch. 77 may actually apply here. Unfortunately, that may mean Harry ends up learning the wrong lesson from this incident.
I love how understated this comment is.
What has to happen in your head for you to be willing to come to my house and eat food I cook and participate in charming conversation and then blithely slash our tires if we ask the wrong question because you think we’re going to become hysterical or behave immorally should we gain access to information or be told that we cannot have it? Why does that sound like a welcoming environment you’d like to visit, with us on such a supposed hair trigger about mere true facts?
There are some communities I consider incredibly welcoming where I don’t imagine by any means that anything I say will be received well just because it’s true. On the other hand, a subculture that not only has idiosyncratic social norms but aggressively shuns anyone who follows mainstream norms, likening violations of their idiosyncratic norms to slashing people’s tires… that sounds incredibly unwelcoming to me.
“Hair trigger about mere true facts” is hyperbole. But the truth is that the overwhelming majority of the human race consists of people who sometimes respond badly to being told “mere true facts.” Insisting you are an exception is quite a brag. It’s possible, but the prior is low. I’d give members of the LessWrong community better odds of being such an exception than I’d grant to most people, but I don’t think every member of the community, or even every prominent member of the community, qualifies. In some cases I think I’ve seen strong evidence to the contrary. (For reasons that should be obvious, please do not ask me to name names.) Because of this, I’m not going to default to treating most members of the LessWrong community radically differently than how I treat non-LessWrongers.
“Why do you read so much?”
Tyrion looked up at the sound of the voice. Jon Snow was standing a few feet away, regarding him curiously. He closed the book on a finger and said, “Look at me and tell me what you see.”
The boy looked at him suspiciously. “Is this some kind of trick? I see you. Tyrion Lannister.”
Tyrion sighed. “You are remarkably polite for a bastard, Snow. What you see is a dwarf. You are what, twelve?”
“Fourteen,” the boy said.
“Fourteen, and you’re taller than I will ever be. My legs are short and twisted, and I walk with difficulty. I require a special saddle to keep from falling off my horse. A saddle of my own design, you may be interested to know. It was either that or ride a pony. My arms are strong enough, but again, too short. I will never make a swordsman. Had I been born a peasant, they might have left me out to die, or sold me to some slaver’s grotesquerie. Alas, I was born a Lannister of Casterly Rock, and the grotesqueries are all the poorer. Things are expected of me. My father was the Hand of the King for twenty years. My brother later killed that very same king, as it turns out, but life is full of these little ironies. My sister married the new king and my repulsive nephew will be king after him. I must do my part for the honor of my House, wouldn’t you agree? Yet how? Well, my legs may be too small for my body, but my head is too large, although I prefer to think it is just large enough for my mind. I have a realistic grasp of my own strengths and weaknesses. My mind is my weapon. My brother has his sword, King Robert has his warhammer, and I have my mind… and a mind needs books as a sword needs a whetstone, if it is to keep its edge.” Tyrion tapped the leather cover of the book. “That’s why I read so much, Jon Snow.”
--George R. R. Martin, A Game of Thrones
Prediction: Snape will end up playing a crucial role in the climax of the story, similar to canon but even more satisfying. Evidence:
I forget where, but at some point Dumbledore tells Harry that Snape is one of his most valuable allies.
The most Snape-centric chapter is called “sunk costs.” Notice that this is the name of a fallacy. Snape thinks his life is an unfixable wreck, but he is wrong, and good story telling demands that this be revealed in a suitably moving fashion.
Most of the problems described in this post seem to be things that are not really practical to do anything about, but this caught my eye:
tl;dr: If you just typed in all honesty “I like eugenics”, even if I enjoy your posts about economics, congratulations, you freak me out and I really, really don’t know why I’m still reading your blog.
Really we need to stop using the word “eugenics.” In the real world it really isn’t smart to keep insisting on the “official” definition of a word decades after it acquired negative connotations for actually pretty good reasons.
I took the IQ test in the extra questions section. I clicked “submit” long before the time ran out, even when I knew I was essentially guessing on some of the questions, because I had gotten sick of the damn thing. My score came back a 122, which pissed me off because I’m fairly sure my real IQ is higher than that.
Then I realized this may be a good metaphor for my life. In the future, when asked my IQ, I’ll respond, “I don’t know, but my lack-of-patience-adjusted IQ is about 120.”
It’s dawned on me that one of the biggest themes of this fic may be the importance of being able to notice flaws in one’s models of other people. Virtually every time something has gone wrong in one of Voldemort’s plans, it is because he is weak in this area:
Failure to predict how Harry would react to seeing him (as Quirrell) trying to kill an Aurour in Azkaban
Failure to predict that Hermione would be suspicious of Mr. Incredibly Suspicious Person
Failure to see how far Harry would go to keep Hermione out of Azkaban
Failure to talk Hermione into leaving Hogwarts of her own free will
The initial failure to predict that people would not treat him very well in his hero role
Then there’s Lucius, seeing everything in terms of self-interested plots, and concluding Harry is Voldemort because of it.
And finally, the bit in chapter 81 about how Harry is wiser than either Dumbledore or Voldemort, because he realizes he’s able to realize when he doesn’t understand people.
A few months ago, I re-read HPMOR in its entirety, and had an insight about the Hermione / feminism issue that I’d previously missed when I wrote this comment. I never got around to saying it anywhere, so I’m saying it here:
I’d previously written:
HPMOR kinda feels off because canonically, Hermione is unambiguously the most competent person in Harry’s year, and has a good chance of growing up to be the most competent person in the ’verse. Harry is kept at the center of the story by his magical connection to Voldemort. In HPMOR, in contrast, Harry is kept at the center of the story by competence and drive. It’s going to be very hard to do that without it feeling like Hermione is getting shafted.
But actually, HPMOR closely parallels cannon on this point: Methods!Hermione got just as much of an intelligence upgrade as Methods!Harry did, so she’s still unambiguously more competent than him, at least before repeated use of his mysterious dark side gave him a mental age-up. This is more or less explicitly pointed out in chapter 21:
She’d done better than him in every single class they’d taken. (Except for broomstick riding which was like gym class, it didn’t count.) She’d gotten real House points almost every day of their first week, not for weird heroic things, but smart things like learning spells quickly and helping other students. She knew those kinds of House points were better, and the best part was, Harry Potter knew it too. She could see it in his eyes every time she won another real House point.
The that the universe is being grossly unfair to Hermione, and this is hammered home multiple times. E.g. I can’t find it at the moment but I think there’s a scene where Harry explains to her she can’t get house points for telling adults about the secret message in the Sorting Hat. Or there’s this exchange in the Self-Actualization arc (emphasis added):
She couldn’t find words. She’d never been able to find words. “If you get too near Harry—you get swallowed up, and no one sees you any more, you’re just something of his, everyone thinks the whole world revolves around him and...” She didn’t have the words.
The old wizard nodded slowly. “It is indeed an unjust world we live in, Miss Granger. All the world now knows that it is I who defeated Grindelwald, and fewer remember Elizabeth Beckett who died opening the way so I could pass through. And yet she is remembered. Harry Potter is the hero of this play, Miss Granger; the world does revolve around him. He is destined for great things; and I ween that in time the name of Albus Dumbledore will be remembered as Harry Potter’s mysterious old wizard, more than for anything else I have done. And perhaps the name of Hermione Granger will be remembered as his companion, if you prove worthy of it in your day. For this I tell you true: never will you find more glory on your own, than in Harry Potter’s company.”
I think what happened is that Eliezer realized how unfair the universe was to Hermione in canon, and decided to keep things that way in HPMOR but comment on it. Which is clever, but looks like Eliezer being unfair to Hermione for no good reason if you don’t understand he’s commenting on the screwiness of canon.
Related thing I noticed: Hermione is probably the most incredibly brave character in HPMOR. Think about it: she, as a twelve year old girl, is told she has an important job to do helping Harry, and then one of the scariest dark wizards who ever lived tries destroy her, when he doesn’t succeed at that, tries to convince her to just run, and she stands her ground. As a twelve year old girl against an ultra-powerful dark wizard. And that’s ultimately why she died. Make no mistake about it: she died a hero’s death.
Edit: this is relevant.
Would there be interest in me writing a post, or a series of posts, summarizing Richard Feldman’s Epistemology textbook? Feldman’s textbook is widely used in philosophy classes, and contains some surprisingly reasonable views (given what you may have heard about mainstream philosophy).
I’m partly considering it because it might be a useful way to counteract some common myths about what all philosophers supposedly know about evidence, the problem of induction, and so on. But I seem to have given away my copy, and a replacement would be $40 for a volume that’s under 200 pages. So I want to gauge interest first.
Can someone explain nanotech enthusiasm to me? Like, I get that nanotech is one of the sci-fi technologies that’s actually physics-compliant, and furthermore it should be possible because biology.
But I get the impression that among transhumanist types slightly older than me, there’s a widespread expectation that it will lead to absolutely magical things on the scale of decades, and I don’t get where that comes from, even after picking up Engines of Creation.
I’m thinking of, e.g. Eliezer talking about how he wanted to design nanotechnology before he got into AI, or how he casually mentions nanotechnology as being one of the big ways a super-intelligent AI could take over the world. I always feel totally mystified when I come across something like that, like it’s a major gulf between me and slightly older nerds.
I agree. Have another $1,100. Also, for those who are interested, a link to a blog post I wrote explaining why I donated.
Good point. In fact, Sandberg, Bostrom, and Armstrong are all signed up for cryonics.
Appearances by the real Quirrell? My impression is that the crawling zombie is the real Quirrell. Early in the story, Quirrell’s non-Voldemort mode is a weirdo, but passable as a normal human. Since then, things have gotten steadily worse. My guess is that the dark magic Voldemort is using to possess Quirrell’s body takes a heavy toll on the victim of the possession, with damage accumulating over time, and by the end of the Hogwarts school year, Voldemort will no longer be able to use the body and the real Quirrell will be dead or at least a vegetable.
Ignore what they say on the job posting, apply anyway with a resume that links to your Github, websites you’ve built, etc. Many will still reject you for lack of experience, but in many cases it will turn out the job posting was a very optimistic description of the candidate they were hoping to find, and they’ll interview you anyway in spite of not meeting the qualifications on the job listing.
Upvoted for funny, but probably not a great name for a non-profit.
Eliezer Yudkowsky heard about Voltaire’s claim that “If God did not exist, it would be necessary to invent Him,” and started thinking about what programming language to use.