This reminds me of a tweet from James Miller:
If aliens arrived on Earth and told us to stop developing superhuman AI or they’ll blow up our solar system, we would stop. This thought example shows that we could coordinate to stop if we believed that AI was sufficiently dangerous.
I don’t think the issue is coordination. It’s about convincing the powers that be of something dangerous that is much more abstract than a war.
My take is that it doesn’t matter whether or not they did, it matters whether or not they could have. We will never know the truth, so considering there is likely at least one person at OpenAI with means & motive, we should assume the worst and act accordingly.