Abram Demski:But it’s like, how do you do that if “I don’t have a good hypothesis” doesn’t make any predictions?

One way you can imagine this working is that you treat “I don’t have a good hypothesis” as a special hypothesis that is not required to normalize to 1.

For instance, it could say that observing any particular real number, r, has probability epsilon > 0.

So now it “makes predictions”, but this doesn’t just collapse to including another hypothesis and using Bayes rule.

You can also imagine updating this special hypothesis (which I called a “Socratic hypothesis” in comments on the original blog post on Radical Probabilism) in various ways.

I think I’ve had a few curated posts. How could I find them?