avturchin

A Pin and a Bal­loon: An­thropic Frag­ility In­creases Chances of Ru­n­away Global Warm­ing

The table of differ­ent sam­pling as­sump­tions in anthropics

Another plau­si­ble sce­nario of AI risk: AI builds mil­i­tary in­fras­truc­ture while col­lab­o­rat­ing with hu­mans, defects later.

Un­typ­i­cal SIA

Rus­sian x-risks newslet­ter May 2022 + short his­tory of “method­ol­o­gists”

Grabby An­i­mals: Ob­ser­va­tion-se­lec­tion effects fa­vor the hy­poth­e­sis that UAP are an­i­mals which con­sist of the “field-mat­ter”:

The Fu­ture of Nu­clear War

The dooms­day ar­gu­ment is normal

Rus­sian x-risk newslet­ter March 2022 update

I left Rus­sia on March 8

Rus­sian x-risks newslet­ter win­ter 21-22, war risks up­date.

SIA be­comes SSA in the multiverse

Plan B in AI Safety approach

Each refer­ence class has its own end

Univer­sal coun­ter­ar­gu­ment against “bad­ness of death” is wrong

Rus­sian x-risks newslet­ter fall 2021

Kri­orus up­date: full bod­ies pa­tients were moved to the new lo­ca­tion in Tver

Con­flict in Kri­orus be­comes hot to­day, up­dated, up­date 2

Rus­sian x-risks newslet­ter sum­mer 2021

A map: “Global Catas­trophic Risks of Scien­tific Ex­per­i­ments”