“Being a physicist is a drag, but it still beats working” (Aurelio Grillo as quoted by Giorgio Parisi, translation from Italian mine)
A1987dM
I’m almost sure Sumerian had words for “artificial” and for “intelligence”.
”Paracetamol” on the other hand… :-)
I’m almost sure I saw a Wikipedia article about this back in the mid 2000s with a 2D version of your plot, but I can’t find anything relevant in either https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fallacies#Statistical_fallacies or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_paradoxes#Statistics … did I just dream of it?
(it’s hard to get curtains that block direct sunlight that well).
[These things](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Stellladen_Roll_fcm.jpg) are pretty much ubiquitous in Italy in buildings since circa 1970s, and [these ones](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Villa_Olmi_K.jpg) (which are somewhat less effective but still way better than a curtain) in earlier buildings.
I dunno… IME, when someone not capable of steelmanning him reads e.g. David Icke, what usually happens is that they just think he must be crazy or something and dismiss him out of hand, not that they start believing in literal reptilian humanoids.
The ToC makes it looks like “blood donations” and “exercise” are among “things that will eventually kill you”...
(Not sure whether $50/day allows you to do this in San Francisco, but:) Live within walking/cycling distance of work, grocery stores, nightlife, museums, etc. so you won’t have to drive a car every day.
Yeah, I often refuse giving people money for something I don’t care about even if the impact of that on my wealth would be negligible just in order to not reward them.
98.: I don’t think the link points where you wanted it to point
My guess would be that:
the direct biological harms of alcohol are roughly linear, i.e. one drink a week is about 1⁄7 as harmful as seven drinks a week, which in turn is about 1⁄7 as harmful as forty-nine drinks a week;
the psychologically mediated benefits of alcohol (through reduced anxiety, improved socialization, etc.) quickly rise up to a few drinks a day, then plateau (and even reverse at very high doses)
when you subtract something like atan(x) from a straight line you may or may not get a minimum at x slightly greater than zero, depending on the slopes involved
(which I think is still not quite enough to make it obvious he’s less dangerous than complete strangers on her way from the metro station back home unless she’s in a third-world country, but still)
What do you think they might be tracking that Sinclair isn’t?
e.g. his demeanor, and the way other people at the meetups who’ve known him for longer than she has treat him
I wonder whether there’s a niche for generative AIs exclusively trained on works in the public domain...
Roll back the thing whereby you not only can but automatically do upvote your own comments?
Sounds like a solution in search for a problem TBH
I’m almost sure the energy you’d save in your lifetime by doing it the optimal way would be less than the energy you spent to write this post...
How ’bout “non-omnicidality”?
(BTW, the term for this is “Muhammad Wang fallacy”)
I opened the comments just to say that!
Not until you work out the chance of all this stuff happening under alternate hypotheses, and the prior probabilities of alternate hypotheses, and the prior probability of the null hypothesis.
(I asked random.org for 10 random bytes and I got 02 c8 c2 30 60 b3 2e 93 a6 e9 . The chance of this happening under the null hypothesis is 1 in 1.2×10^24