Anyway, this is mostly just a straw poll to see how many others would be interested in such a thing.
Votes for/against
Upvote to vote for, downvote to vote against.
ETA: Maintain the karma balance below.
Anubhav
Karma: 1,142
Sticky threads?
For instance, any competent epidemiologist at the CDC or WHO can give you fairly precise odds of when the next global pandemic will occur with a mortality of 30% to 50% of the population. No expert in this area voice any doubt that such an outbreak will occur. It is not a question of if, but of when.
… what
ETA: Wikipedia yields nothing except an equivocal “there is concern”. The only panic I see was about H5N1, and that turned out to be way overblown.
Took every quote posted in this thread so far and Markov-ised it. (Depth of 1, i.e., each word only depends on the word before it. A depth of 2 basically regurgitates the input in this case.)
Here are some of the results:
“How do you regenerate that beat Reedspacer’s Lower Bound?”
“It’s a more karma. I interpreted your map, not a group you feel prejudiced against, frequentists for infanticide.”
“Look, just generalize from halo effect.”
“Okay, but in this is rational under them to make six figures as a cult.”
“Beliefs are just an inferential distance and my belief is the territory.”
“That’s just a survey should do you measure, not throw all the scientific knowledge a dissolved question.”
“Any organization with the teacher’s password.”
“That’s just rejecting religion and closely guarded secret, so it but there’s no idea how BIG thingspace is.”
“Foo is the karma system more likely.”
“You make six figures as a thousand shards of inferential distance and I cooperate.”
“Conceptspace is white.”
“Go ahead and only if and it’s objective, but I think he’s just what the Nazis did!”
“There’s a Philosophy professor about definitions.”
“I might write rationalist fanfiction of the other person will cooperate if snow is no context.”
“Mysteriousness is true rejection?”
“I’d say politically incorrect about it before proposing solutions?”
“Arguments are you feel prejudiced against, frequentists for infanticide.”
“I have to suppress dissent.”
“Of course I wanna be the universe with rationality?”
“Money is an argument about my belief that one of a rationalist.”
“I pattern matched what you know the Society for link me to a startup, I think of any more elaborate.”
“‘Snow is being used to say ‘purpose’.”
The thread should really be called “Shit LWers Say.”
We’re not the only group of people calling ourselves “Rationalists”, nor are we the most well-known of these groups (not by a long shot).
Quirrell.
It’s not just about him not bothering to check whether he had a visa to Fuyuki city.
It’s about him always having claimed to be a Slytherin.
Despite actually being… a Ravenclaw?
That doesn’t sound like the kind of claim you could get away with it, and Quirrell should know that, but he still makes it, and… gets away with it?
Doesn’t any current Hogwarts student have parents/relatives/family friends who knew Quirrell from his time back at school?
And it’s blindingly, blitheringly obvious by this point that Quirrell is H&C. Too obvious.
Why would Quirrell orchestrate this in a way that ends in him being interrogated by the DMLE? Compare with his attempted Dementation of Harry.
In fact, the same thing would apply even if he weren’t H&C. I’d expect him to have come up with a better way of handling it. One with more plausible deniability.
Conclusion: Quirrell planned to be interrogated by the DMLE. Quirrell planned to have his cover blown. Why? I haven’t the slightest idea.
I still don’t know what to make of the Ravenclaw thing, though.
Edit: Just checked to see if Quirrell had actually claimed to be in Slytherin instead of just implying it. Yes, he had.
Yes, I was in Slytherin and I am offering to formulate a cunning plot on your behalf, if that is what it takes to accomplish your desire.
Edit: Of course he planned to be interrogated; he couldn’t afford to be inside Hogwarts when Dumbledore began searching for Tom Riddle.
I still don’t know why he’d want to blow his cover, though.
That was an alternate universe. As this post was heavily downvoted, hardly any LWers took the challenge, depriving SIAI of the money they’d have gotten by referring successful challengers. Also, because of information cascades, the same thing happened to all future Quixey posts, leading Quixey to eventually stop posting here. Because of the negative word-of-mouth from such incidents, people stopped looking at the LW audience as a set of eyeballs to monetise.
Consequently, the SIAI was deprived of all potential advertising income, and lacked the budget to perfect FAI theory in time. Meanwhile, the Chinese government, after decades of effort, managed to develop a uFAI. Vishwabandhu Gupta of India managed to convince his countrymen that an AI is some sort of intelligence-enhancing ayurvedic wonder-drug that the Chinese had illegally patented. Consequently, the Indians eagerly invaded China, believing that increased intelligence would allow their kids to get into good colleges. This localised conflict blew up into the Artilect War, which killed everyone in the planet.
So please… don’t do that again. Just don’t. I’m tired of having to travel to an alternate universe every time that happens.
I’m not sure it psychologically counts as positive reinforcement of the writer writing more quickly, if one criticizes too much while still it’s being written...
Eliezer has said he doesn’t mind this thread. (I PM’d him before creating it.)
Or just that he’s pissed with Harry for putting himself in Malfoy’s debt.
Or for painting a giant bulls-eye on himself.
The icy glare could really mean anything.
India accounted for a quarter of world GDP at the time of conquest- by independence it was barely one percent.
Yes, missing out on the industrial revolution does that to you.
Imagine willpower doesn’t exist. That’s step 1 to a better future.
Second slide of this powerpoint by Stanford’s Persuasive Tech Lab.
I LIKE subtlety. It flatters my ego if I see it, and if I don’t, I don’t know that I’m missing it.
Data point. I started this thread to complain about the blood of Atlantis. The conclusion is based on a long chain of conjunctive reasoning that basically feels like an asspull. Harry has absolutely no good reason to believe something that complex.
Then I when I went looking for the link, I realised that.… The chapter’s called “Hold Off on Proposing Solutions”.
The feeling of “that’s epic”-ness cannot be described in words.
Having “Rationality” in the name would probably be a bad thing. (Straw Vulcan stereotypes and all that.) “Bayesian” is a much better choice IMO.
Why not call it something like BayesWay?
Or how about that old Japanese cliche… “Better than Yesterday”? That would go well with Stabilizer’s “Update Yourself” byline.
To start with.… I’d recommend raising every character’s age by a few years. (I think this is a ‘love-it-or-hate-it’ idea, but I have no clue how prevalent either of these viewpoints are… How many people think that the first-years really act like eleven-year-olds? And I’m not just talking about Harry...)
And, consequently, Hogwarts now has only four years.
Also, I’m clueless about the math, but… I seem to remember reading in a discussion thread that 1000 students in Hogwarts implies a total wizarding population the size of a small town. So I’d cram in 4000 students into the 4 years of Hogwarts. (We’re gonna need TAs now, but that doesn’t change anything fundamental.) Unless… The population is still too small, in which case… I suppose you could keep the 1000 students and have other wizarding schools.
And I’d suggest compressing the first four chapters into one.
ETA: Also, partial transfiguration. Harry shouldn’t get it right that quickly.
Non-googleability is a minus.
HPMOR: What could’ve been done better?
Being in debt is probably not the same thing as being a vassal, even temporarily.
(Well, maybe… Dumbledore still hasn’t told us what rights Lucius now has over Harry.)
(There’s an analogous, hilarious, inconsistency in canon; how did the twins never see Peter Pettigrew sleeping in Ron’s bed?)
What makes you think they didn’t?
(The obvious answer to this inconsistency is that they had no reason to spy on their brother/the first-years’ dorm, but… He used to be Percy’s rat. They never spied on Percy? BS.)
Parodies a public domain work, inspired by a free fanfic, and locked behind a paywall.
Am I the only one who thinks that that’s just wrong?
On February 13th, President Obama will be assassinated by ninjas. This will lead to a political crisis, which Sarah Palin will exploit to get elected to the White House. On August 18, in a public address to a worried nation, the Secretary of State will declare, ‘Two nukes were not enough’. To prevent the destruction of the Holy Grail, Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres and the Organisation will forge a temporary alliance with the intent of neutralizing America’s nuclear arsenal. The plan will fail because of sabotage by SEELE. In desperation, Harry Potter will kill every member of the American administration using the Death Note. He will be summoned by the Wizengamot to answer charges of violating the Statute of Secrecy. Having discovered the SEELE plot, however, he will go to Antarctica and attempt to stop it instead of returning to Britain. The Wizengamot will then rule for the repossession of the assets of Potter Finance, and Lord Draco Malfoy will be unable to overrule them. This will trigger civil war in Magical Britain, which will eventually engulf the rest of Magical Europe.
Meanwhile, in Japan, the remnants of the Tohsaka and Matou clans, the late Kiritsugu Emiya’s band, and the Church will forge an alliance to deal with the combined forces of the Chaos Legion and the Organisation. They will be defeated, but Ginevra Weasley and Neville Longbottom will be assassinated by Shirou Emiya and Rin Tohsaka respectively. The Organisation and the Legion will try to backstab each other simultaneously, which the Integrated Data Entity and the Sky Canopy Dominion will try to take advantage of. Yuki Nagato will attempt to betray the Entity and will be deleted from existence as a consequence. In retaliation, Kyon will use his trump card on Haruhi Suzumiya, whose annoyance with this whole long-winded FUBAR will create a timequake so severe that it will cause the Second and Third Impacts to occur simultaneously, wiping out all life on earth except for a timid boy and a narcissistic girl with mommy issues. This will happen on December 21.
.… Wow, so the Mayans were right?