The confirmation bias.
Algon
I see what you’re saying, but I don’t think that the two situations are equivalent. I’m not going by the many worlds interpretation, but the Copenhagen one. In a finite universe, I understand that one is not guaranteed immortality, and even in the many worlds interpretation, immortality is iffy as Tegrmark has explained. Though I do see the point of your second objection, I think that it is not illogical to go either way on this point. I act under a coherence theory of Truth, so my attempt at grasping Truth may lead me down a different path to your attempt, but we will eventually meet up somewhere, given enough time.
Thanks for taking a time to reply! By the way, why do you think I got down voted? Was it the tone, my saying something obvious or something else entirely? I’d be much obliged if you could critique my post a little more.
Well, it is necessarily true that anything that can happen, will happen in an infinite, probabilistic world. Of course, there are some issues with this. One, if the mass of the higgs boson falls in a certain area, then the universe will undergo a shift. From what I remember, it is something to do with the vacuum energy/state of the universe, and the laws of physics may well end up changing. Its been a few years since I read that article, so I may not have it completely right. And events that have a probability of an infinitesimal...well, I’m not sure what would happen. I don’t know what infinity over infinity is, but I suspect that it will be undefined. Anyway, the expectation of a value is its probability, multiplied by the quantity of cards drawn, or whatever it is you’re trying to determine. In this case, how many events with probability P are going to happen in an infinite amount of time? Well, an infinite number. That’s just how it works.
If I’ve been obtuse in some way, don’t hesitate to call me out on it. And thanks for reading!
Edit: I just re-read your comment. I don’t think that’s how the probabilities work in this reality, though I may be wrong… I mean, what sort of probability would this event have in a finite universe? Is it some infinite universe only event? Do those even exist? It should be irrelevant though, because our universe has existed for some time T, and we had some probability P of occurring, and so that would mean we will reoccur in an infinite universe. Same for the other versions of us, though you could provide me with an argument for why that isn’t so.
Alright, what about the whole transporter thing? That is, if you were suddenly went into a star-trek like transporter, you would be disassembled, and reassembled on the other side of the solar system. Would that still be you? Now, I could try and convince you that that is the case from a reductionist point of view, but I think that the arguments themselves are pretty clear, and I don’t have much time. If you want me to though, I can, just message me.
Anyway, if you do accept that this other you is still the same you, because it has the same thoughts, the same memories, the same outlook on life, the same propensity to do such and such, then you should be okay with this whole thing. Because what I’m talking about is pretty much the same as the transported scenario, just with a much longer time gap in between. And in these cases, the whole universe itself gets recreated, along with you. Sure, you could pop up alone, or missing five organs, but there is still a chance that it will occur. And could you clarify your last point? Because I was under the impression that the expected number of an events with probability P happening in a time T (which is infinite) is p*T. Which is infinite, and so not P approaches zero as T approaches zero. The whole limits thing. If I’m wrong, then please show me, so that I can learn why I’m wrong, and stop wasting people’s time.
1) I get that the whole idea of Boltzmann brains is unwanted in physics, but that is just because it potentially invalidates a lot of our knowledge. Now, if we could find out that the universe has only existed for a finite time because otherwise something would have Changed in a major way in it, and we have some sort of multi verse theory going on, then its no longer a problem. But besides that, I don’t think that it is as huge a problem as everyone thinks. Sure, its undesirable in one way, but it may well be true, like moral relativism.
and 2) I don’t think that you quite got what I was saying. Yes, that is what happens to a Boltzmann Brain, but the point I’m trying to make, which is the same thing that physicists find troubling, is that in an infinite looking universe, every state of the universe would be recreated. The whole thing, including the galaxy we live in. Say if something went wrong, and you died in five minutes. This infinite world would require that happening countless times, as well as the universe in which you did not die, or survived happening an infinite number of times.
I’m going to point you down to my reply to Ander, because I think that it might help you see why a universe which is in an inhospitable state does not really matter. Now, your objection would have cleared up the original Boltzmann Brain thing, and the problems therein, but it does not clear up the current one, where we live in a probabilistic universe.
I’m sorry about your friend. But before I say anything, could you say why exactly my speculations are wild? I’m just running with an idea that many more knowledgeable people than I (many physicists) think is a descent possibility.
I think that his post as a whole was better. In fact, I suppose my post would better serve as an side to Yvain’s. Also, I think I ran with the whole immortality thing more than he did. I believe I addressed more potential issues, or at least blabbered on for longer about them. I do think it is an important issue, because a world like this has serious consequences. Namely, utilitarian like theories break down. Nick Bostrom wrought a good paper on this sort of thing (ethics in an infinite universe), though he didn’t present a viable solution. SO on the one hand you have proper immortality,and on the other you don’t have a decent ethical system. Frankly, I’m not sure I would even want a world like this, if it doesn’t allow ethics.
Ok, so assuming that you have a world where the position of every particle, photon and what have is after a time dt is probabilistic, then there is a possibility that all these particles will go somewhere else, however small. This does change depending on the situation, but each particle has a non-zero probability of being elsewhere. This does not change. Now, it is possible that all these particles will re order themselves so that the entire state of the universe is different, i.e. a state that looks like its 3 billion years after the big bang instead of 13.8 billion. Now, as you were saying the universe may well become more inhospitable over time, reaching a sort of heat death were I believe no minds would be easily able to exist. And in the time it takes the universe to get to that stage, it is exceedingly unlikely that it would have turned into some wholly different stage than was expected. But, given an infinite amount of time, the very arrangment of the universe, not just a few quadrillion atoms, will revert to some other stage. It may become more hospitable, or maybe less. But the next stage could, and would turn into some other state. Eventually, you’ll get a universal structure not too different from the current one, and it will be hospitable to life, and will therefore allow the probability of our very beings to re-occur. It may not happen the first time the universe goes to a hospitable state, or the next and so on, but eventually it will.
So I think I’ve answered your rebuttal, unless you were saying something like ‘The universe is inevitably going to be more inhospitable to minds, and will not go back to a more hospitable state, and so the expeceted amount of minds is going to be some finite number as a result of a converging series’ If so, then I have nothing to say other then ‘Why?’
I’m acting under the Copenhagen interpretation, not many worlds. So I am talking about our world, not any other.
1) A universe that does not undergo a Big Crunch would necessarily last for an infinite amount of time. THough there is one caveat, which is the paper that the very same blogger you linked to wrote (Its in the page) 2) I think a Copenhagen interpretation is more likely. But I will have to mull that article over for a while. 3) I am not actually saying that all will re-appear is your brain, but the entirety of you and the rest of the world and so on, with exactly the same happenings going on. So yes, you would be conscious, and it would be you. 4) Here is a lecture by Leonard Suskind, which may help clear things up a bit. Either way, its fairly enjoyable https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhnKBKZvb_U 5) The problem with your example of a mother grieving is this: the same situation would inevitably occur again, but this time, you would survive, or would be miraculously revived or etc. And since a person is just a structure, if that structure re occurs, it will be the same person. It will be the mother, and she will see her son alive. Now, since there are two seperate paths going on here, the mother in situation A 10 years later will not be the same as mother in situation B 10 years later. But, there are various paths that could where the mother in situation A sees her son again, and so everything will be fine. And there will be some world where mother A suddenly wakes up on a grassy field and sees here supposedly dead son next to her, and all will be well. And such a world is possible i.e. the configuration of the atoms is possible, and so it will happen in a universe that has no ‘end’.
Now, I think that your first link holds the strongest objection, but I am in no real position to argue with the author. So, in several years time when I’ve finished undergrad, gotten a PhD in Physics and am ready to answer you, I’ll come calling. Then we can have a nice discussion as two rationalists where I can try and convince you that the would is infinite, and quite possibly horrific,.
I consider a person to be a certain structure extending throughout space time. So, if two structures are identical, as in the loop scenario, I’d say that they were the same person. Of course, that’s only if these accidental clones have the structure, which they will not, as one clone will be in position A, and the other will be in position B, and so be different people, albeit very similar ones. The same goes for the first scenario, they are going to be different people since they will be in different situations. In the case where they have the same experiences for the rest of their lives, and so the same structures in space time, they will be the same person. But that could only happen in two universal configurations which were the exact same… which is what will happen in an infinite universe. But might I ask, why do you not think that they shall be the same person?
Look, you can’t just make up probabilities out of thin air like that. I accept that such a thing may be possible, but I have not heard or seen anything like it. If you can give an example of such an event, of any kind, that would greatly bolster my propensity to accept your argument.
As to your second point, it is necessarily true. The universe would have some finite possibility of changing to some other state, including this one. It is not, as far as I can see, subject to the same problem. If you can explain, in full detail, why this is the case, then I’ll be happy to accept your argument. An infinite universe isn’t just good news. In fact, it may be worse than a finite one with no hope of true immortality.
I was saying that ‘I may be wrong, and not know of any probabilities like this’. Secondly. you should give an example instead of just defining such an event. As far as I can see, what you essentially said was ‘Suppose that an infinite amount of minds will not occur, thought that’s cheating a bit. Then what do you say?’ Well, I can’t say anything, because that whole things is presupposing that I’m wrong. It really is cheating.
Also, the point I’m trying to make is that each configuration of the universe has a set probability to go to any other state. The manner in which you work out the probabilities for each configuration of the universe does not change.
Alright, now we’re getting somewhere. What I wrote down was what I understood of you’re argument, and now that you’ve cleared things up a little, I can try again. What I now understand by your objection is this ’What if the probability of universal configurations is X? How do you respond to this?
Here, I have no clear retort. But I shall try to work on it.
Ok, now that I’ve had a chance to think about it, I have an objection to your point. So, what you’re saying is that the universe will provide lower and lower probabilities for sentient beings to form as time goes by. This would have to include solar systems as well, since if the probabilities of solar systems spontaneously arising was constant, then life would also have a constant chance of forming each moment of time the usual way i.e. by self-replicating chemicals happening to form cells and evolution kicking in. So we must rule that and other things out for your objection to hold. And that is not inherently problematic.
But, the universe is expanding at an accelerating rate, and the gap between atoms will eventually become huge. Finally, space would be expanding faster than the speed of light, and no atoms could communicate with each other past a certain point in time, as information travels at the speed of light. Now, the atoms have nothing to interfere with them, and will have eventually spent up as much energy as they possibly can and be in their lowest energy states. This means that the probabilities of all the atoms doing certain things, moving in certain ways is fixed, because they are in a fixed state; nothing can interfere with them. And this would have solved the problem if it was not for the fact that the probabilities of the atoms still allow for huge structures to be formed. I can’t remember the exact details, but I can link you to a source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhnKBKZvb_U This is a video in which Leonard Suskind explains the whole Boltzmann brain issue, and why it is still an issue in our current understanding of the universe.
Now, since the universe or what have you could reform spontaneously, and would get to the same state where the probabilities are fixed, the whole thing is doomed to repeat. And here is the crux of the thing: An infinite sum the expectation of fixed probabilities will be infinite. That is, they will not converge as in your counterpoint, since there will be some situation in which the probabilities are fixed, and this situation will repeatedly arise. And that’s not even mention the fluctuation in the vacuum.
Thanks for the advice. Are floating tanks supposed to be a once in a while thing? Also, I do get a lot of sleep. Part of my coping mechanism for migraines is just sleeping huge amounts in my free time. I’d say it takes up 20-30 hours a week of free time. I looked through the most effective things, and I’ve tried/do them all. Sadly, I have my A-level exams (used for Uni application) in a month or two, so I’m really hoping that something works soon. I’ll try the others though Who knows, they might work! Again, thanks for the advice, its much appreciated.
Well, I shouldn’t think so. From what I understand, alcohol is one of the most common triggers for migraines. And I don’t touch the stuff. Honestly, I expect it would do more harm than good, at least in my case. I hope you’re girlfriend gets better though.
I’ve been keeping a food diary, and there seems to be no clear correlation with any foods I’ve been eating. But, since I have migraines pretty much non-stop, its a bit tricky to discern what’s causing what. I had a blood test, which said I had no allergies, but my doctor told me they weren’t much help. Anyway, I’ll try kicking seafood off the menu, and see what happens. Thanks for the advice.
Hi. I’ve been lurking here for a couple of months, reading up on some of the sequences and so forth, I made an account because I wanted to post a few things on the discussion board. Mainly to do with why I’m pretty convinced that immortality is already a thing, and how that has badly damaged my belief in a utilitarian system of ethics. Finally, I wanted to ask about something to do with FAI; essentially, why wouldn’t X work. I’m curious to see how FAI will reveal itself to be more fiendish than I already thought.