I’m not sure I would call eating dirt a tenet of modern parenting. Most parents will stop their children if they see them eating dirt. It’s more a question of how hard you try to stop them.
agc
The actions would have made (some) sense if we were supply constrained on vaccines. If supply is severely limited, you want to incentivize ordering only what you will definitely use, and you want to be very careful about using each dose in the most effective way.
It seems everyone assumed we’d be supply constraint and then never updated when it turned out distribution is the bottleneck. Actually, do we have strong evidence that vaccine supply is not currently limited in the US?
One reason I’m asking is that the UK seems to be doing much better in theory: Simpler rules, mostly based on age, no silly fights between governors and mayors, not a lot of scandals. Still, in shots per capita they are only slightly ahead. Is UK vaccine use slow in a less publicly embarrassing way, or are they supply limited while the US is not?
Things i have wondered about this week:
The UK has vaccinated a larger share than the US, although America is catching up. Still, US states seem to be opening up to all adults very soon, while the UK is only going to 45+. Why is that? My current theory is that the UK has much higher vaccine take up among older people.
Why is Japan doing so few vaccinations? They could afford afford it and surely have the organizational capacity. Are they so confident that they can control the virus that they don’t bother? Are kindly letting the west have the vaccine first since we clearly need it?
Are there factories out there that could be making COVID vaccine but aren’t? In theory there shouldn’t be because Pfizer, AstraZeneca, J&J and others should rationally be subcontracting to others to manufacture for them. Worldwide demand should be easily big enough to justify it. Yet I’m not sure.
All good points, but you are missing one consideration. Paying off debt is a perfectly risk-free investment, but also an investment that is difficult to withdraw. I have a couple of months salary in a bank account earning ~0% interest, while paying a couple percent interest on a mortgage. In theory, I am throwing money away and should pay off as much as I can. The difference is that the money in the bank account is easily available if I need it.
You are absolutely right that anyone paying 20% interest on credit card debt should pay it off before thinking about investments.
Do they think ‘oh the six foot thing was all a lie?’
I think everyone understood that six foot was not a magic line but a rule of thumb, and it can be relaxed now that things are better.
I didn’t get the point about Walid Gellad’s tweet. Is he someone I should recognize?
I haven’t seen a strong argument that “stag hunt” is a good model for reality. If you need seven people to hunt stag the answer isn’t to have seven totally committed people, who never get ill, have other things to do, or just don’t feel like it. I’d rather have ten people who who are 90% committed, and be ready to switch to rabbit the few days when only six show up.
I feels like you have some specific examples in mind, but are deliberately not sharing them. That makes me reluctant to comment, as I want to know what I am discussing.
Initially I have two issues: a) I think you are using two different meanings of the word interest: things you find interesting, and things you gain utility from. b) Groups only rarely enforce strict rules for joining, so there are hardly any true collective interests by your definition.
The claim that a school is ‘the safest place for our kids’ in a pandemic is grade-A Obvious Nonsense
I’m not sure about that. Covid isn’t all that dangerous for children, and possibly a good portion of them would otherwise be in some unsafe kind of childcare.
Note that even if I’m allowed to get one, I don’t intend to get one if the peak has already passed.
Why is that? If I somehow make it through the next 4 months without getting Covid I wouldn’t mind an other booster, to top up fading immunity and protection in case there is a more virulent Omicron-derived variant in the future.
How could an outside observer tell the difference between this, and a cult trying to stifle criticism?
Kids of dirt eating age will change their teeth in a few years anyway, so I think tooth-wear is less concerning.
I think it’s worth throwing some shade on Joe Rogan, despite the overlapping ingroups.
This looks sensible and will probably save you money compared to buying a car, as long as neither of you use the car very often. One option to consider is to have them keep full ownership of the car and you pay a per-mile rate. Employers pay a standard rate of $0.56 per mile when an employee uses a private car for work. This is probably a bit higher than true cost, but they are taking the risks of unexpected repairs and such. That arrangement would be easier to get out of if needed: You just stop driving it.
The UK is rolling out twice weekly lateral flow tests quite widely:
Anyone who wants it (mainly for those who work outside the home)
All Secondary school children
All school staff
Parents of primary and secondary school children
That seems like a really good thing. My worry is that a lot of parents will skip it because nose swabs are uncomfortable.
Yes, this feels related to slack. No-one has really figured out how to get both slack and efficiency.
Ok sure, at that point it’s basically a synonym for network effects.
A few questions:
When are these likely to pay out? Will I have to wait until January 20 or even later?
For the Secretary of State and Attorney General, what happens if Biden becomes president but the senate refuses to confirm his nominees?
Finally, why does PredictIt ask for so much personal information, and can I get away with entering fake info?
Is Zvi actually claiming McAfee didn’t kill himself, or are there more layers of sarcasm than I could get through?
I should probably know this, but are any of the mass produced COVID vaccines peptide vaccines?
I thought fomites was though to have been a significant vector with SARS-1. (i.e. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5519164/)
A 2012 CFAR workshop included “Guest speaker Geoff Anders presents techniques his organization has used to overcome procrastination and maintain 75 hours/week of productive work time per person.” He was clearly connected to the LW-sphere if not central to it.