I totally agree with you that the reference class problem is a real problem, but having access to a process for quickly finding accurate base rates is still a problem.
adam demirel(Adam Demirel)
Karma: 23
[Question] Where to find Base Rates?
Do you have any data on how long the conversion takes?
What time did you take it? D3 is a strong cellular modulator of our clock genes https://www.vitamindcouncil.org/new-research-finds-activated-vitamin-d-regulates-genes-involved-in-the-circadian-rhythm/
Interestingly, this fits with what Paul Graham replied to my email (about career advice) a while back: