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Trans­for­ma­tive AI

TagLast edit: 4 Sep 2023 5:51 UTC by Yaakov T

Transformative AI is “[...] AI that precipitates a transition comparable to (or more significant than) the agricultural or industrial revolution.”[1] Unlike the related terms Superintelligent AI and Artificial General Intelligence, which refer to specific capabilities the AI may have, Transformative AI refers to the effects the AI would have on humanity’s well-being; through impacting the global economy, state power, international security, etc.

Holden Karnofsky gives a more detailed definition in an OpenPhil 2016 post:

[...] Transformative AI is anything that fits one or more of the following descriptions (emphasis original):

  • AI systems capable of fulfilling all the necessary functions of human scientists, unaided by humans, in developing another technology (or set of technologies) that ultimately becomes widely credited with being the most significant driver of a transition comparable to (or more significant than) the agricultural or industrial revolution. Note that just because AI systems could accomplish such a thing unaided by humans doesn’t mean they would; it’s possible that human scientists would provide an important complement to such systems, and could make even faster progress working in tandem than such systems could achieve unaided. I emphasize the hypothetical possibility of AI systems conducting substantial unaided research to draw a clear distinction from the types of AI systems that exist today. I believe that AI systems capable of such broad contributions to the relevant research would likely dramatically accelerate it.

  • AI systems capable of performing tasks that currently (in 2016) account for the majority of full-time jobs worldwide, and/​or over 50% of total world wages, unaided and for costs in the same range as what it would cost to employ humans. Aside from the fact that this would likely be sufficient for a major economic transformation relative to today, I also think that an AI with such broad abilities would likely be able to far surpass human abilities in a subset of domains, making it likely to meet one or more of the other criteria laid out here.

  • Surveillance, autonomous weapons, or other AI-centric technology that becomes sufficiently advanced to be the most significant driver of a transition comparable to (or more significant than) the agricultural or industrial revolution. (This contrasts with the first point because it refers to transformative technology that is itself AI-centric, whereas the first point refers to AI used to speed research on some other transformative technology.)

  1. ^

An­nounc­ing Epoch: A re­search or­ga­ni­za­tion in­ves­ti­gat­ing the road to Trans­for­ma­tive AI

27 Jun 2022 13:55 UTC
95 points
2 comments2 min readLW link
(epochai.org)

Fore­cast­ing Trans­for­ma­tive AI, Part 1: What Kind of AI?

HoldenKarnofsky24 Sep 2021 0:46 UTC
17 points
17 comments9 min readLW link

[AN #121]: Fore­cast­ing trans­for­ma­tive AI timelines us­ing biolog­i­cal anchors

Rohin Shah14 Oct 2020 17:20 UTC
28 points
5 comments14 min readLW link
(mailchi.mp)

A cou­ple of ques­tions about Con­jec­ture’s Cog­ni­tive Emu­la­tion proposal

Igor Ivanov11 Apr 2023 14:05 UTC
25 points
1 comment3 min readLW link

Boundaries-based se­cu­rity and AI safety approaches

Allison Duettmann12 Apr 2023 12:36 UTC
41 points
2 comments6 min readLW link

The Virus—Short Story

Michael Soareverix13 Apr 2023 18:18 UTC
4 points
0 comments4 min readLW link

Ca­pa­bil­ities and al­ign­ment of LLM cog­ni­tive architectures

Seth Herd18 Apr 2023 16:29 UTC
77 points
17 comments20 min readLW link

GPT-4 im­plic­itly val­ues iden­tity preser­va­tion: a study of LMCA iden­tity management

Ozyrus17 May 2023 14:13 UTC
21 points
4 comments13 min readLW link

Trans­for­ma­tive AI is a pro­cess

meijer19738 Jun 2023 8:57 UTC
2 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

What is Com­pute? - Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [1/​4]

lennart23 Sep 2021 16:25 UTC
27 points
9 comments19 min readLW link

Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [Sum­mary]

lennart26 Sep 2021 11:41 UTC
13 points
0 comments9 min readLW link

Fore­cast­ing Com­pute—Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [2/​4]

lennart2 Oct 2021 15:54 UTC
17 points
0 comments19 min readLW link

Com­pute Gover­nance and Con­clu­sions—Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [3/​4]

lennart14 Oct 2021 8:23 UTC
13 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

Com­pute Re­search Ques­tions and Met­rics—Trans­for­ma­tive AI and Com­pute [4/​4]

lennart28 Nov 2021 22:49 UTC
7 points
0 comments16 min readLW link

Causal­ity, Trans­for­ma­tive AI and al­ign­ment—part I

Marius Hobbhahn27 Jan 2022 16:18 UTC
14 points
11 comments8 min readLW link

Phase tran­si­tions and AGI

17 Mar 2022 17:22 UTC
45 points
19 comments9 min readLW link
(www.metaculus.com)

AI Alter­na­tive Fu­tures: Sce­nario Map­ping Ar­tifi­cial In­tel­li­gence Risk—Re­quest for Par­ti­ci­pa­tion (*Closed*)

Kakili27 Apr 2022 22:07 UTC
10 points
2 comments8 min readLW link

Analysing a 2036 Takeover Scenario

ukc100146 Oct 2022 20:48 UTC
9 points
2 comments27 min readLW link

Wor­ld­view iPeo­ple—Fu­ture Fund’s AI Wor­ld­view Prize

Toni MUENDEL28 Oct 2022 1:53 UTC
−22 points
4 comments9 min readLW link

The econ­omy as an anal­ogy for ad­vanced AI systems

15 Nov 2022 11:16 UTC
28 points
0 comments5 min readLW link

The Prospect of an AI Winter

Erich_Grunewald27 Mar 2023 20:55 UTC
62 points
24 comments15 min readLW link
(www.erichgrunewald.com)

[Question] Is ChatGPT TAI?

Amal 30 Dec 2022 19:44 UTC
14 points
5 comments1 min readLW link

How do we al­ign hu­mans and what does it mean for the new Con­jec­ture’s strategy

Igor Ivanov28 Mar 2023 17:54 UTC
7 points
4 comments7 min readLW link

Agen­tized LLMs will change the al­ign­ment landscape

Seth Herd9 Apr 2023 2:29 UTC
153 points
95 comments3 min readLW link
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