This corresponds with what people actually do. For example, when Stephen Diamond said on Overcoming Bias that there was a 99% chance that Clinton would win, I said, ok, I’ll pay you $10 if Clinton wins and you can pay me $1,000 if Trump wins. He said no, that’s just a break even point, so there’s no motive to take the bet. I said fine, $10 - $500. He refused again. And obviously that was precisely because he realized those odds were absurd. So he in fact updated. But insisting, “you have to admit that you updated,” is just a status game. If you just offer the bet, and they refuse, that is enough. They will update. You don’t have to get them to admit it.
I don’t think not believing in one’s probability is the only reason to avoid betting. There’s also a lot of physical resistance for many people.
Even if he believed in the odds it would be very irrational to take your bet. He would get better odds on PredictIt and PredictIt is likely a more trustworthy third-party to pay him in case he wins the bet.
This corresponds with what people actually do. For example, when Stephen Diamond said on Overcoming Bias that there was a 99% chance that Clinton would win, I said, ok, I’ll pay you $10 if Clinton wins and you can pay me $1,000 if Trump wins. He said no, that’s just a break even point, so there’s no motive to take the bet. I said fine, $10 - $500. He refused again. And obviously that was precisely because he realized those odds were absurd. So he in fact updated. But insisting, “you have to admit that you updated,” is just a status game. If you just offer the bet, and they refuse, that is enough. They will update. You don’t have to get them to admit it.
I don’t think not believing in one’s probability is the only reason to avoid betting. There’s also a lot of physical resistance for many people.
Even if he believed in the odds it would be very irrational to take your bet. He would get better odds on PredictIt and PredictIt is likely a more trustworthy third-party to pay him in case he wins the bet.
Yeah, if they refuse the bet that means they probably updated (or weren’t trying to be rational to begin with).
Or don’t have $500.
True, but then they should counteroffer something they can afford, like $1 to $50, since they should be eager to rake in the “free money”.