This needs to be incentive-compatible with “being a pundit”, I think. Like the idea is to make it so people who do pundrity on twitter are automatically nudged to make their predictions legible and gradable.
The default is of course that people who do punditry are automatically nudged to make their predictions illegible, because the existence of any such system threatens to embarrass the many pundits who know their predictions are bullshit.
This seems like a huge problem and I don’t know how you get around it, other than hoping the system takes off so well that people can be shamed for conspicuously dodging its accountability.
I agree it’s quite difficult to solve this completely. But, it seems like you could make it so “On twitter, the default thing is if you try to pundit, the system nudges you towards legiblizing your predictions.”
This at least makes more of the world, on the margin, track “being correct” as a good thing to do. This can hopefully have flowthrough effects as the equilibrium shifts from “illegible pundits just look like status quo” to “illegible pundits look weirder.”
The default is of course that people who do punditry are automatically nudged to make their predictions illegible, because the existence of any such system threatens to embarrass the many pundits who know their predictions are bullshit.
This seems like a huge problem and I don’t know how you get around it, other than hoping the system takes off so well that people can be shamed for conspicuously dodging its accountability.
I agree it’s quite difficult to solve this completely. But, it seems like you could make it so “On twitter, the default thing is if you try to pundit, the system nudges you towards legiblizing your predictions.”
This at least makes more of the world, on the margin, track “being correct” as a good thing to do. This can hopefully have flowthrough effects as the equilibrium shifts from “illegible pundits just look like status quo” to “illegible pundits look weirder.”