I don’t think this is why you don’t have forecasts more widely locked/tracked on lesswrong.
We’ve specifically thought about forecasts several times, and each time we end up feeling “idk, the forecasts just don’t quite seem to be doing the same type of work that LW posts are doing, like, the fact that you need to do all this annoying operationalization to make them trackable is pretty annoying and doesn’t really feel like it’s Doing The Thing.”
This thread has made me feel more optimistic about routing around that (less with community notes probably, more with AI assistance)
We’ve specifically thought about forecasts several times, and each time we end up feeling “idk, the forecasts just don’t quite seem to be doing the same type of work that LW posts are doing, like, the fact that you need to do all this annoying operationalization to make them trackable is pretty annoying and doesn’t really feel like it’s Doing The Thing.”
This thread has made me feel more optimistic about routing around that (less with community notes probably, more with AI assistance)
Why do you think that’s different than twitter? Like of LW makes claims about the future, right?