don’t build ASI until it can be done safely > build ASI whenever but try to make it safe > never build ASI
Those people might give different prescriptions to the “never build ASI” people, like not endorsing actions that would tank the probability of ASI ever getting built. (Although in practice I think they probably mostly make the same prescriptions at the moment.)
I agree that some people have this preference ordering, but I don’t know of any difference in specific actionable recommendations that would be given by “don’t until safely” and “don’t ever” camps.
In practice, bans can be lifted, so “never” is never going to become an unassailable law of the universe. And right now, it seems misguided to quibble over “Pause for 5, 10, 20 years”, and “Stop for good”, given the urgency of the extinction threat we are currently facing. If we’re going to survive the next decade with any degree of certainty, we need an alliance between B1 and B2, and I’m happy for one to exist.
Some people likely think
Those people might give different prescriptions to the “never build ASI” people, like not endorsing actions that would tank the probability of ASI ever getting built. (Although in practice I think they probably mostly make the same prescriptions at the moment.)
I agree that some people have this preference ordering, but I don’t know of any difference in specific actionable recommendations that would be given by “don’t until safely” and “don’t ever” camps.
In practice, bans can be lifted, so “never” is never going to become an unassailable law of the universe. And right now, it seems misguided to quibble over “Pause for 5, 10, 20 years”, and “Stop for good”, given the urgency of the extinction threat we are currently facing. If we’re going to survive the next decade with any degree of certainty, we need an alliance between B1 and B2, and I’m happy for one to exist.