My model is basically just “Newsom likely doesn’t want to piss off Big Tech or Pelosi, and the incentive to not veto doesn’t seem that high, and so seems highly likely to veto, and 50% veto seems super low”. My fair is, like, 80% veto I think?
I’m not that compelled by the base rates argument, because I think the level of controversy over the bill is atypically high, so it’s quite out of distribution. Eg I think Pelosi denouncing it is very unusual for a state Bill and a pretty big deal
Thanks for sharing! Why do you think the CA legislators were more OK pissing off Big Tech & Pelosi? (I mean, I guess Pelosi’s statement didn’t come until relatively late, but I believe there was still time for people in at least one chamber to change their votes.)
To me, the most obvious explanation is probably something like “Newsom cares more about a future in federal government than most CA politicians and therefore relies more heavily on support from Big Tech and approval from national Democratic leaders”– is this what’s driving your model?
This is a fair point. I think Newsom is a very visible and prominent target who has more risk here (I imagine people don’t pay that much attention to individual California legislators), it’s individually his fault if he doesn’t veto, and he wants to be President and thus cares much more about national stuff. While the California legislators were probably annoyed at Pelosi butting into state business.
Is there some source that particularly indicates this? I get why the 15% base rate might be low, but haven’t actually seen evidence apart from this Manifold question that it’d be higher.
Newsom’s stance on Big Tech is a bit murky. He pushed ideas like the Data Dividend but overall, he seems pretty friendly to the industry.
As for Pelosi, she’s still super influential, but she’ll be 88 by the next presidential election. Her long-term influence is definitely something to watch and Newsom probably has a good read on how things will shift.
My model is basically just “Newsom likely doesn’t want to piss off Big Tech or Pelosi, and the incentive to not veto doesn’t seem that high, and so seems highly likely to veto, and 50% veto seems super low”. My fair is, like, 80% veto I think?
I’m not that compelled by the base rates argument, because I think the level of controversy over the bill is atypically high, so it’s quite out of distribution. Eg I think Pelosi denouncing it is very unusual for a state Bill and a pretty big deal
Thanks for sharing! Why do you think the CA legislators were more OK pissing off Big Tech & Pelosi? (I mean, I guess Pelosi’s statement didn’t come until relatively late, but I believe there was still time for people in at least one chamber to change their votes.)
To me, the most obvious explanation is probably something like “Newsom cares more about a future in federal government than most CA politicians and therefore relies more heavily on support from Big Tech and approval from national Democratic leaders”– is this what’s driving your model?
This is a fair point. I think Newsom is a very visible and prominent target who has more risk here (I imagine people don’t pay that much attention to individual California legislators), it’s individually his fault if he doesn’t veto, and he wants to be President and thus cares much more about national stuff. While the California legislators were probably annoyed at Pelosi butting into state business.
I believe that Pelosi had never once spoken out against a state bill authored by a California Democrat before this.
A financial conflict of interest is a wonderous thing...
For what it’s worth, I don’t have any particular reason to think that that’s the reason for her opposition.
Is there some source that particularly indicates this? I get why the 15% base rate might be low, but haven’t actually seen evidence apart from this Manifold question that it’d be higher.
Newsom’s stance on Big Tech is a bit murky. He pushed ideas like the Data Dividend but overall, he seems pretty friendly to the industry.
As for Pelosi, she’s still super influential, but she’ll be 88 by the next presidential election. Her long-term influence is definitely something to watch and Newsom probably has a good read on how things will shift.