Doesn’t this premise (the duplicator) have a problem of being exceedingly implausible? Assuming it’s implemented by non-destructive imaging followed by atom-level construction of a person, both of those technologies might as well be magic from today’s point of view. I wonder whether either is even physically possible. In any case, a civilization capable of such technology is already unrecognizably different from our own.
That’s quite a different situation from more common premises, such as superintelligent AGI or genetic engineering for enhancement, both of which are obviously physically possible and seem feasible with non-magical levels of technology.
If there were some way that the duplicator could work out if the AGI and genetics don’t, then maybe it’d be worth considering, but in the case of genetic engineering for enhancement, it’s actually strictly easier than the duplicator, in the sense that, if you had atom-level construction of a whole person, you’d in particular be able to atom-level construction of a human cell with a specified genome inside it (the goal of HGP-Write), and we already know enough today to plausibly specify a highly-enhanced human genome.
I think Holden partly put the cart before the horse by talking about consequences of a duplicator without even trying to show that a duplicator is possible. Perhaps the previous article has his answer:
[suppose] You think our economic and scientific progress will stagnate. Today’s civilizations will crumble, and many more civilizations will fall and rise. Sure, we’ll eventually get the ability to expand throughout the galaxy. But it will take 100,000 years. That’s 10x the amount of time that has passed since human civilization began in the Levant.
The difference between your timeline and mine isn’t even a pixel, so it doesn’t show up on the chart. In the scheme of things, this “conservative” view and my view are the same.
Except that Holden is building “the most important century” series, and discussing a person-cloning technology that could be 400 years away, or 99,900, doesn’t make the case for 21st-century-as-most-important.
Also, the duplicator route is one that makes “the little people” like myself fairly irrelevant. My IQ is only like 125, and wouldn’t this duplicator be reserved for the top 0.1% or so? Maybe you need something like a 150 IQ to be worth duplicating, unless you are somebody like Beyoncé or Bill Gates with wealth and/or a proven track record. Or perhaps Xi’s hand-picked successor takes over the world and only duplicates his most loyal followers and scientists. Even if this century is the most important, that matters little to me if I cannot participate in the revolution.
In the current world, what I need to enable me to meaningfully influence the future is money I don’t have, but I am more likely to get that than new genius abilities. Now, I don’t oppose duplicators, but it seems like we’re very far from having one. Just bringing people out of poverty and wage-slavery (e.g. via UBI and/or an Open Engineering program) would quickly enable a lot more smart people to do smart things rather than just obeying the boss’s orders.
Doesn’t this premise (the duplicator) have a problem of being exceedingly implausible? Assuming it’s implemented by non-destructive imaging followed by atom-level construction of a person, both of those technologies might as well be magic from today’s point of view. I wonder whether either is even physically possible. In any case, a civilization capable of such technology is already unrecognizably different from our own.
That’s quite a different situation from more common premises, such as superintelligent AGI or genetic engineering for enhancement, both of which are obviously physically possible and seem feasible with non-magical levels of technology.
If there were some way that the duplicator could work out if the AGI and genetics don’t, then maybe it’d be worth considering, but in the case of genetic engineering for enhancement, it’s actually strictly easier than the duplicator, in the sense that, if you had atom-level construction of a whole person, you’d in particular be able to atom-level construction of a human cell with a specified genome inside it (the goal of HGP-Write), and we already know enough today to plausibly specify a highly-enhanced human genome.
I think Holden partly put the cart before the horse by talking about consequences of a duplicator without even trying to show that a duplicator is possible. Perhaps the previous article has his answer:
Except that Holden is building “the most important century” series, and discussing a person-cloning technology that could be 400 years away, or 99,900, doesn’t make the case for 21st-century-as-most-important.
Also, the duplicator route is one that makes “the little people” like myself fairly irrelevant. My IQ is only like 125, and wouldn’t this duplicator be reserved for the top 0.1% or so? Maybe you need something like a 150 IQ to be worth duplicating, unless you are somebody like Beyoncé or Bill Gates with wealth and/or a proven track record. Or perhaps Xi’s hand-picked successor takes over the world and only duplicates his most loyal followers and scientists. Even if this century is the most important, that matters little to me if I cannot participate in the revolution.
In the current world, what I need to enable me to meaningfully influence the future is money I don’t have, but I am more likely to get that than new genius abilities. Now, I don’t oppose duplicators, but it seems like we’re very far from having one. Just bringing people out of poverty and wage-slavery (e.g. via UBI and/or an Open Engineering program) would quickly enable a lot more smart people to do smart things rather than just obeying the boss’s orders.