In the ancient world, some people _DID_ wonder what the sun and moon looked like from very far away. Some of them actually _WENT_ very far away and looked (and saw minimal difference, but did do some clever calculations to measure shadows and times to figure out how far “very far away” was). Even if someone HAD postulated that there existed a distance so great that the sun would look like a point, and that our stars might be suns to them, they wouldn’t be “right” in any useful sense of the word. There are zero predictions nor behavior changes to make based on that hypothesis.
I’d argue that we _do_ have a start at some ideas that might pan out in the same way (good models for questions we can’t yet ask) - simulation argument, quantum immortality, etc.), and the big problem isn’t finding more ideas, but in deciding which ones are worth giving up immediate resources to pursue sooner.
edit: this came out way more negative than I intended. I like the topic, and even though I’m skeptical that we’ll identify any novel ideas or ways to evaluate them, I do hope that I’m wrong.
Fair, perhaps (haven’t thought about it in strong enough detail to have an opinion). But the frontpage criteria aren’t meant to judge posts on that axis. (i.e. the question is “does the post make arguments that fit certain meta-guidelines”, not “are the arguments actually valid”)
Even if someone HAD postulated that there existed a distance so great that the sun would look like a point, and that our stars might be suns to them, they wouldn’t be “right” in any useful sense of the word. There are zero predictions nor behavior changes to make based on that hypothesis.
On the one hand, I agree that beliefs should guide our expectations and in general should be required to “pay rent” as in the post you reference. On the other hand, truth is truth, regardless of whether it can be perceived as such. I am reminded of https://www.readthesequences.com/Belief-In-The-Implied-Invisible , though as written it doesn’t directly apply.
I don’t like the outcome of “this is too far beyond our current capabilities so it is irrational to think about”. Is there a place in rational thought for considering ideas that cannot presently be tested, but may point the way for future explorers who are better equipped?
Perhaps you’ve got the best conclusion given the constraints:
the big problem isn’t finding more ideas, but in deciding which ones are worth giving up immediate resources to pursue sooner
Though I find that ever so slightly depressing to consider.
I don’t think I would, unless the comment stream comes up with some really great things. It’s a fine prompt for thinking outside the box, but it completely misses the mark on the way ideas and truth actually works, and would benefit from a read of https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a7n8GdKiAZRX86T5A/making-beliefs-pay-rent-in-anticipated-experiences .
In the ancient world, some people _DID_ wonder what the sun and moon looked like from very far away. Some of them actually _WENT_ very far away and looked (and saw minimal difference, but did do some clever calculations to measure shadows and times to figure out how far “very far away” was). Even if someone HAD postulated that there existed a distance so great that the sun would look like a point, and that our stars might be suns to them, they wouldn’t be “right” in any useful sense of the word. There are zero predictions nor behavior changes to make based on that hypothesis.
I’d argue that we _do_ have a start at some ideas that might pan out in the same way (good models for questions we can’t yet ask) - simulation argument, quantum immortality, etc.), and the big problem isn’t finding more ideas, but in deciding which ones are worth giving up immediate resources to pursue sooner.
edit: this came out way more negative than I intended. I like the topic, and even though I’m skeptical that we’ll identify any novel ideas or ways to evaluate them, I do hope that I’m wrong.
Fair, perhaps (haven’t thought about it in strong enough detail to have an opinion). But the frontpage criteria aren’t meant to judge posts on that axis. (i.e. the question is “does the post make arguments that fit certain meta-guidelines”, not “are the arguments actually valid”)
On the one hand, I agree that beliefs should guide our expectations and in general should be required to “pay rent” as in the post you reference. On the other hand, truth is truth, regardless of whether it can be perceived as such. I am reminded of https://www.readthesequences.com/Belief-In-The-Implied-Invisible , though as written it doesn’t directly apply.
I don’t like the outcome of “this is too far beyond our current capabilities so it is irrational to think about”. Is there a place in rational thought for considering ideas that cannot presently be tested, but may point the way for future explorers who are better equipped?
Perhaps you’ve got the best conclusion given the constraints:
Though I find that ever so slightly depressing to consider.
I didn’t read it as a piece making a claim, but as a question, which you answered with a link/phrase.