Are you interested in hardware, software, or both? Hardware tends to have slower development cycles. Also hardware is more easily patentable, which complicates your question (if it takes a decade for the patent to expire, does that count as a decade-long technological lead?)
It’s entirely possible that the first real AGI algorithm will require (in practice) a custom ASIC to run it, maybe even using non-standard cleanroom fabrication processes or materials. OTOH, it’s also entirely possible that it will run on a normal GPU or FPGA. Hard to say, but important to think about...
I’m interested in both and even neither, but of course the closer the analogy to AGI the better.
Yeah, that’s a good fork of possibilities to think about. As for the issue of patents, insofar as someone has a lead because no one else is trying because patents, then that’s a disanalogy between their case and AGI because presumably patent laws won’t be powerful enough to prevent multiple projects from racing hard for AGI.