Whilst these stories are wild lets not forget that in the “real” markets also have had a lot of wild stories over the same time period:
GME
Archegos
Greensill
Citi/Revlon
Texas Electricy
My point is less “these stories aren’t interesting” (they are) and more “interesting things happen in lots of markets”. Try to avoid weighting too much on “prediction markets are weird” and more “markets are weird”.
Prediction markets are tiny compared to real world markets. Something like $100 million total volume on Polymarket since inception. There just aren’t as many people making sure they’re efficient.
Whilst these stories are wild lets not forget that in the “real” markets also have had a lot of wild stories over the same time period:
GME
Archegos
Greensill
Citi/Revlon
Texas Electricy
My point is less “these stories aren’t interesting” (they are) and more “interesting things happen in lots of markets”. Try to avoid weighting too much on “prediction markets are weird” and more “markets are weird”.
Prediction markets are tiny compared to real world markets. Something like $100 million total volume on Polymarket since inception. There just aren’t as many people making sure they’re efficient.