I don’t think that gene drives are the best technology when you account for the politics and indeed the post by Luke that you link doesn’t use the term. SIT seems to be effective enough from a cost-benefit analysis and can be used in a very controlled way.
I look a while ago into the issue and wrote an LW post about it. I think there’s a fair chance that pushing for gene drives mosquitos to be released will mean that mosquito elemintion will happen later rather than sooner.
Oxitec has today the technology that produes “sterile mosquitio” sterile for them means that the mosquitos die when they are larves. That means they compete in the early larve stage against other mosquito larves.
Oxitec also inserts color coding genes to be able to proof that all of the offspring of the mosquitos they produce really dies and the genes that they produce really die.
It would be worthwhile if people think of mosquito erradication as being about release sterile mosquitos and not about releasing mutant GMO mosquitos.
If you actively want to do something on the PR front I think it would be worthwhile to contact someone at Oxitec and ask them what they think would be helpful. Maybe invite someone from Oxitec for your podcast and have a discussion with them about the strategic implications?
It’s worthwhile to remember that the Obama administration was very effective about reducing Mercury pollution but not very effective about reducing CO2 pollution. More publish attention isn’t always worthwhile to getting policy passed. Especially the scenario where a Republican Trump advocates a gene drive might mean that you get opposition from liberals who are currently against GMO’s on the topic that prevents real action from happening.
I wonder if Trump advocating gene drive might push liberals to counter with a less drastic proposal such as what you suggest. I don’t have a good model of how liberals think, but if Trump did advocate using gene drive to exterminate mosquitoes would liberals really be capable of countering with the status quo given liberals current support for “black lives matter.”
It would be worthwhile if people think of mosquito erradication as being about release sterile mosquitos and not about releasing mutant GMO mosquitos.
The sterile insect approach is, at best, a population control measure, rather than an extinction measure. Some may hope that if you do population control long enough, they eventually go extinct, but I think the evidence for that is pretty low. (Cynically, the sterile insect approach is something that has to be done repeatedly to be effective, which makes it more of a utility than a one-off project.)
I think it’s worth giving this the smallpox treatment—that is, there’s a heroic scientific project involving the permanent elimination of a scourge on the human race, and stressing the importance of permanent solutions to the problem. Yes, smallpox required vaccination approaches that are similar to the sterile insect approach, but that doesn’t work well with mosquitoes, so we’ll use the tool that works well.
Some may hope that if you do population control long enough, they eventually go extinct, but I think the evidence for that is pretty low.
We already eliminated Malaria carrying Mosquitos from large parts of the West with DDT and related techniques. Those mosquitos didn’t manage to easily recolonize the areas from which they were driven away.
Louie Helm article suggest that SIT is enough to drive mosquito species to extinction. Do you think there a reason he’s wrong? His numbers might be on the low end but spending a few billions would very much be worth it to eliminate all human biting mosquitos.
We already eliminated Malaria carrying Mosquitos from large parts of the West with DDT and related techniques. Those mosquitos didn’t manage to easily recolonize the areas from which they were driven away.
No, the extent of mosquitoes was reduced by draining swamps. Other methods, such as DDT did not reduce the extent of mosquitoes, but eliminated malaria from them.
We already eliminated Malaria carrying Mosquitos from large parts of the West with DDT and related techniques. Those mosquitos didn’t manage to easily recolonize the areas from which they were driven away.
My understanding is that this isn’t the case where Oxitec has done its tests, but this may be a feature of the size of the area where Oxitec is doing its tests rather than a feature of the method itself. (I suspect we did DDT everywhere at once, which would reduce the ability of mosquitoes to recolonize relative to a single test area.)
I think my main objection is that it’s a few billions to do the sterile insect approach, and a few millions to do the gene drive approach, if that much. Insisting on a 1000x increase in cost to maybe please the public more rankles.
Oxitec has already PR problem with it’s current approach where they can prove that all mosquitos don’t leave ancestors and where they focus on disease carrying mosquitos that are invading species.
The economic cost of dengue is phenomenal and was estimated to have cost the global economy over US$39 billion in 2011 alone
Spending a few billions on eliminating disease carrying mosquitos would be okay.
Even if over the long-term using the gene drive technology is the best way to go, I don’t think it’s the best way to have the discussion at the beginning when they idea of eliminating mosquito species enters public consciousness.
“Oxitec’s GM mosquitoes have a genetic ‘kill switch’ but no one is sure if it will work on just the GM variety or also on the bugs that interbreed with the GM ‘test’ insects. ”
If only there was some way to physically scream “THAT’S THE FUCKING POINT!” at the author. The whole point is to spread the “kill switch” to the wild mosquitoes.To kill them.
The Daily mail article appears to be referring to this:
where people started pointing to GM mosquitos having been released in areas where zika has been spreading.
never mind that areas where mosquito’s are the biggest problem are the areas where you try mosquito control, in a similar vein it’s suspicious that most malaria deaths are in areas where bednets have previously been distributed. There can be only one conclusion: bednets cause malaria.
I don’t think that gene drives are the best technology when you account for the politics and indeed the post by Luke that you link doesn’t use the term. SIT seems to be effective enough from a cost-benefit analysis and can be used in a very controlled way.
I look a while ago into the issue and wrote an LW post about it. I think there’s a fair chance that pushing for gene drives mosquitos to be released will mean that mosquito elemintion will happen later rather than sooner.
Oxitec has today the technology that produes “sterile mosquitio” sterile for them means that the mosquitos die when they are larves. That means they compete in the early larve stage against other mosquito larves. Oxitec also inserts color coding genes to be able to proof that all of the offspring of the mosquitos they produce really dies and the genes that they produce really die.
It would be worthwhile if people think of mosquito erradication as being about release sterile mosquitos and not about releasing mutant GMO mosquitos.
If you actively want to do something on the PR front I think it would be worthwhile to contact someone at Oxitec and ask them what they think would be helpful. Maybe invite someone from Oxitec for your podcast and have a discussion with them about the strategic implications?
It’s worthwhile to remember that the Obama administration was very effective about reducing Mercury pollution but not very effective about reducing CO2 pollution. More publish attention isn’t always worthwhile to getting policy passed. Especially the scenario where a Republican Trump advocates a gene drive might mean that you get opposition from liberals who are currently against GMO’s on the topic that prevents real action from happening.
I wonder if Trump advocating gene drive might push liberals to counter with a less drastic proposal such as what you suggest. I don’t have a good model of how liberals think, but if Trump did advocate using gene drive to exterminate mosquitoes would liberals really be capable of countering with the status quo given liberals current support for “black lives matter.”
I think the idea of actually exterminating mosquitos is already extrem for many liberals who would rather prefer handing out bet nets.
My honest response to this comment would involve observations on liberals that violate LW norms.
The sterile insect approach is, at best, a population control measure, rather than an extinction measure. Some may hope that if you do population control long enough, they eventually go extinct, but I think the evidence for that is pretty low. (Cynically, the sterile insect approach is something that has to be done repeatedly to be effective, which makes it more of a utility than a one-off project.)
I think it’s worth giving this the smallpox treatment—that is, there’s a heroic scientific project involving the permanent elimination of a scourge on the human race, and stressing the importance of permanent solutions to the problem. Yes, smallpox required vaccination approaches that are similar to the sterile insect approach, but that doesn’t work well with mosquitoes, so we’ll use the tool that works well.
We already eliminated Malaria carrying Mosquitos from large parts of the West with DDT and related techniques. Those mosquitos didn’t manage to easily recolonize the areas from which they were driven away.
Louie Helm article suggest that SIT is enough to drive mosquito species to extinction. Do you think there a reason he’s wrong? His numbers might be on the low end but spending a few billions would very much be worth it to eliminate all human biting mosquitos.
No, the extent of mosquitoes was reduced by draining swamps. Other methods, such as DDT did not reduce the extent of mosquitoes, but eliminated malaria from them.
My understanding is that this isn’t the case where Oxitec has done its tests, but this may be a feature of the size of the area where Oxitec is doing its tests rather than a feature of the method itself. (I suspect we did DDT everywhere at once, which would reduce the ability of mosquitoes to recolonize relative to a single test area.)
I think my main objection is that it’s a few billions to do the sterile insect approach, and a few millions to do the gene drive approach, if that much. Insisting on a 1000x increase in cost to maybe please the public more rankles.
Oxitec has already PR problem with it’s current approach where they can prove that all mosquitos don’t leave ancestors and where they focus on disease carrying mosquitos that are invading species.
See http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3425381/Are-scientists-blame-Zika-virus-Researchers-released-genetically-modified-mosquitos-Brazil-three-years-ago.html http://naturalsociety.com/outrage-oxitecs-gm-moths-are-released-in-new-york/
According to Oxitec:
Spending a few billions on eliminating disease carrying mosquitos would be okay.
Even if over the long-term using the gene drive technology is the best way to go, I don’t think it’s the best way to have the discussion at the beginning when they idea of eliminating mosquito species enters public consciousness.
Oh my god those articles are stupid.
If only there was some way to physically scream “THAT’S THE FUCKING POINT!” at the author. The whole point is to spread the “kill switch” to the wild mosquitoes.To kill them.
The Daily mail article appears to be referring to this:
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2987024/pandoras_box_how_gm_mosquitos_could_have_caused_brazils_microcephaly_diasaster.html
where people started pointing to GM mosquitos having been released in areas where zika has been spreading.
never mind that areas where mosquito’s are the biggest problem are the areas where you try mosquito control, in a similar vein it’s suspicious that most malaria deaths are in areas where bednets have previously been distributed. There can be only one conclusion: bednets cause malaria.