+9. Fatebook has been a game changer for me, in terms of how practical it is to weave predictions into my decisionmaking. I donated $1000 to Sage to support it.
It’s not listed here, but one of the most crucial things is the Fatebook Chrome Extension, which makes it possible to frictionless integrate it into my normal orienting process (which I do in google docs. You can also do it in the web version of Roam).
I’ve started work on “Enriched Fatebook” poweruser view that shows your calibration at a more granular level. I have several ideas for how to build additional poweruser UI for it but not sure if I’ll get around to it. https://raemon.github.io/fatebook-enriched
One weakness is that the Slack Integration produces pretty bulky predictions, which makes it feel awkward to make a ton of predictions in a channel (and usually, when we’re having a discussion where it’d be appropriate to make a prediction, it’s useful to make like 3 predictions that tackle the question from different angles). Trimming off a few lines from the Slack UI would be good, i.e. see here:
I don’t know what the limitations of the Slack integration are but you should be able to shave at least one line off that.
...
I currently thinking a thing that Quick Forecasting is missing is “qualia-based predictions.” I.e. before I know “what probability do I assign here?” I often know things like “I don’t believe in this, in my gut” or “I believe in this but in a loopy way where I’m the one driving the actions and I’m inhabiting a confident mode which is hard to be objective about.” Right now Fatebook has tags for Questions, but not tags for “predictions.”
Longterm, I think the Philosophically/Practically Correct Typing for an individual prediction should let you either put a number (if you have one), or a “prediction tag” which is some kind of metadata other than the raw probability. (But, admittedly I don’t expect anyone other than me to use that for the near future so it’s not obviously a priority)
Thanks Raemon – I’m a fan of ~all these ideas! I’m not spending much time on Fatebook specifically these days (busy with various other projects), but your feedback is and has been super useful.
+9. Fatebook has been a game changer for me, in terms of how practical it is to weave predictions into my decisionmaking. I donated $1000 to Sage to support it.
It’s not listed here, but one of the most crucial things is the Fatebook Chrome Extension, which makes it possible to frictionless integrate it into my normal orienting process (which I do in google docs. You can also do it in the web version of Roam).
I’ve started work on “Enriched Fatebook” poweruser view that shows your calibration at a more granular level. I have several ideas for how to build additional poweruser UI for it but not sure if I’ll get around to it. https://raemon.github.io/fatebook-enriched
One weakness is that the Slack Integration produces pretty bulky predictions, which makes it feel awkward to make a ton of predictions in a channel (and usually, when we’re having a discussion where it’d be appropriate to make a prediction, it’s useful to make like 3 predictions that tackle the question from different angles). Trimming off a few lines from the Slack UI would be good, i.e. see here:
I don’t know what the limitations of the Slack integration are but you should be able to shave at least one line off that.
...
I currently thinking a thing that Quick Forecasting is missing is “qualia-based predictions.” I.e. before I know “what probability do I assign here?” I often know things like “I don’t believe in this, in my gut” or “I believe in this but in a loopy way where I’m the one driving the actions and I’m inhabiting a confident mode which is hard to be objective about.” Right now Fatebook has tags for Questions, but not tags for “predictions.”
Longterm, I think the Philosophically/Practically Correct Typing for an individual prediction should let you either put a number (if you have one), or a “prediction tag” which is some kind of metadata other than the raw probability. (But, admittedly I don’t expect anyone other than me to use that for the near future so it’s not obviously a priority)
Thanks Raemon – I’m a fan of ~all these ideas! I’m not spending much time on Fatebook specifically these days (busy with various other projects), but your feedback is and has been super useful.