I still think full automation of remote work in 10 years is plausible, because it’s what we would predict if we straightforwardly extrapolate current rates of revenue growth and assume no slowdown. However, I would only give this outcome around 30% chance.
In an important sense I feel like Ege and I are not actually far off here. I’m at more like 65-70% on this. I think this overall recommends quite similar actions. Perhaps we have a more important disagreement regarding something like P(AGI within 3 years), for which I’m at approx. 25-30% and Ege might be very low (my probability mass is somewhat concentrated in the next 3 years due to an expectation that compute and algorithmic effort scaling will slow down around 2029 if AGI or close isn’t achieved).
My guess is that this disagreement is less important to make progress on than disagreements regarding takeoff speeds/dynamics and alignment difficulty.
I do think the difference between an AGI timeline median of 5 years and one of 20 years does matter, because politics starts affecting whether we get AGI way more if we have to wait 20 years instead of 5, and serial alignment agendas make more sense if we assume a timeline of 20 years is a reasonable median.
Also, he argues against very fast takeoffs/software only singularity in the case for multi-decade timelines post.
In an important sense I feel like Ege and I are not actually far off here. I’m at more like 65-70% on this. I think this overall recommends quite similar actions. Perhaps we have a more important disagreement regarding something like P(AGI within 3 years), for which I’m at approx. 25-30% and Ege might be very low (my probability mass is somewhat concentrated in the next 3 years due to an expectation that compute and algorithmic effort scaling will slow down around 2029 if AGI or close isn’t achieved).
My guess is that this disagreement is less important to make progress on than disagreements regarding takeoff speeds/dynamics and alignment difficulty.
I do think the difference between an AGI timeline median of 5 years and one of 20 years does matter, because politics starts affecting whether we get AGI way more if we have to wait 20 years instead of 5, and serial alignment agendas make more sense if we assume a timeline of 20 years is a reasonable median.
Also, he argues against very fast takeoffs/software only singularity in the case for multi-decade timelines post.