I do think the difference between an AGI timeline median of 5 years and one of 20 years does matter, because politics starts affecting whether we get AGI way more if we have to wait 20 years instead of 5, and serial alignment agendas make more sense if we assume a timeline of 20 years is a reasonable median.
Also, he argues against very fast takeoffs/​software only singularity in the case for multi-decade timelines post.
I do think the difference between an AGI timeline median of 5 years and one of 20 years does matter, because politics starts affecting whether we get AGI way more if we have to wait 20 years instead of 5, and serial alignment agendas make more sense if we assume a timeline of 20 years is a reasonable median.
Also, he argues against very fast takeoffs/​software only singularity in the case for multi-decade timelines post.