fwiw I prefer people to write posts like this than-not, on the margin. I think operationalizing things is quite hard, I think the right norm is “well, you get a lot less credit for vague predictions with a lot of degrees of freedom”, but, it’s still good practice IMO to be in the habit of concretely predicting things.
fwiw I prefer people to write posts like this than-not, on the margin. I think operationalizing things is quite hard, I think the right norm is “well, you get a lot less credit for vague predictions with a lot of degrees of freedom”, but, it’s still good practice IMO to be in the habit of concretely predicting things.