so there’s like an ultimate thing that your set of predictions is about, and you’re holding off on saying what is to be vindicated until some time that you can say “this is exactly/approximately what i was saying would happen”?
im not trying to be negative; i can still see utility in that if that’s a fair assessment but i want to know why, when you say you called it, this was the thing you wanted to have been called
fwiw I prefer people to write posts like this than-not, on the margin. I think operationalizing things is quite hard, I think the right norm is “well, you get a lot less credit for vague predictions with a lot of degrees of freedom”, but, it’s still good practice IMO to be in the habit of concretely predicting things.
so there’s like an ultimate thing that your set of predictions is about, and you’re holding off on saying what is to be vindicated until some time that you can say “this is exactly/approximately what i was saying would happen”?
im not trying to be negative; i can still see utility in that if that’s a fair assessment but i want to know why, when you say you called it, this was the thing you wanted to have been called
fwiw I prefer people to write posts like this than-not, on the margin. I think operationalizing things is quite hard, I think the right norm is “well, you get a lot less credit for vague predictions with a lot of degrees of freedom”, but, it’s still good practice IMO to be in the habit of concretely predicting things.