Very impressed by the sanity level of Nilsson’s response. He’s a very respected name in the area, and this is a pretty warm endorsement for SIAI’s project, despite placing it below global warming and giving 0.01% probability of extinction event due to AGI. Some people would call 0.01% a small risk (particularly AGI researchers) and move right along.
Curious what Minsky has to say—I assume you’re going after him at some point?
Very impressed by the sanity level of Nilsson’s response.
I am not sure “sanity level” is the phrase I would use here, since the difference seems to be “Nilsson agrees with SIAI” rather than “Nilsson isn’t crazy.”
Especially since it seems rather discongruent to assign a a 50% probability for AI to be developed by 2050 and a 90% probability for self-modification that leads to superintelligence within 5 years of AI being developed… and then only a 0.01% probability for AI-caused human extinction within this century.
Of course, he may be presuming that superintelligence alone won’t help much.
Very impressed by the sanity level of Nilsson’s response. He’s a very respected name in the area, and this is a pretty warm endorsement for SIAI’s project, despite placing it below global warming and giving 0.01% probability of extinction event due to AGI. Some people would call 0.01% a small risk (particularly AGI researchers) and move right along.
Curious what Minsky has to say—I assume you’re going after him at some point?
I am not sure “sanity level” is the phrase I would use here, since the difference seems to be “Nilsson agrees with SIAI” rather than “Nilsson isn’t crazy.”
Especially since it seems rather discongruent to assign a a 50% probability for AI to be developed by 2050 and a 90% probability for self-modification that leads to superintelligence within 5 years of AI being developed… and then only a 0.01% probability for AI-caused human extinction within this century.
Of course, he may be presuming that superintelligence alone won’t help much.
He was the first person I wrote. He never replied.
Try his son? http://www.linkedin.com/pub/henry-m/0/1/968