I find if I try using probabilities in Bayes in my head then I make mistakes. If I start at 1⁄4 probability and get 1 bit of evidence to lower this further then I think “ok, Ill update to 1/8”. If I use odds I start at 1:3, update to 1:6 and get the correct posterior of 1⁄7.
So essentially I’m constantly going back and forth—like you I find probabilities easier to picture but find odds easier for updates.
I find if I try using probabilities in Bayes in my head then I make mistakes. If I start at 1⁄4 probability and get 1 bit of evidence to lower this further then I think “ok, Ill update to 1/8”. If I use odds I start at 1:3, update to 1:6 and get the correct posterior of 1⁄7.
So essentially I’m constantly going back and forth—like you I find probabilities easier to picture but find odds easier for updates.