At some point in my life I was convinced by a theory of macroeconomics called modern monetary theory. I was convinced everybody was wrong about macroeconomics and I was right.
The reader might find it amusing to learn that, in stark contrast to many other issues of this type, this particular belief counterfactually cost me tens of millions of dollars.
Humbled by age, experience and debate with actual economists, no longer possessed by a Yudkowskian sense that I am right and everybody is wrong I am no longer certain I know the answer on macroeconomics. But I will point out that it is a characteristic prediction of MMT that monetary operations will have NO effect on inflation—only fiscal deficits determine inflation.
At some point in my life I was convinced by a theory of macroeconomics called modern monetary theory. I was convinced everybody was wrong about macroeconomics and I was right.
The reader might find it amusing to learn that, in stark contrast to many other issues of this type, this particular belief counterfactually cost me tens of millions of dollars.
Humbled by age, experience and debate with actual economists, no longer possessed by a Yudkowskian sense that I am right and everybody is wrong I am no longer certain I know the answer on macroeconomics. But I will point out that it is a characteristic prediction of MMT that monetary operations will have NO effect on inflation—only fiscal deficits determine inflation.
What does that mean? If you hadn’t believed it, you would be tens of millions of dollars richer now?
Yes.
Perhaps explain your story in more detail. Others might find it interesting.