At 26, you can expect to life around 55 more years. Let’s trade off against waiting for a vaccine, assuming the vaccine is 100% safe and effective, and also assume your quarantining strategy is 100% effective.
By giving yourself COVID-19, you’re losing about 55 years * 52 weeks per year * .002 chance of death = 6 weeks of life in expectation. That’s not counting the risk of chronic fatigue, or the time you might spend being sick.
Your motivations seem basically selfish, moderated by a desire to be socially responsible. If so, then consider that we’ll also probably have faster and more widespread testing in the coming months. More efficacious treatments may emerge. These may permit socially responsible travel prior to the arrival of a vaccine. Then consider that some people may not want you around even if you tell them you’re immune. And of course, the world’s going to continue being shut down even if you have antibodies in your system.
Does social distancing suck so bad for you that this trade off feels like it makes sense? What is the concrete activity you’d like to be able to do, that you can’t do without antibodies in your system?
Does social distancing suck so bad for you that this trade off feels like it makes sense? What is the concrete activity you’d like to be able to do, that you can’t do without antibodies in your system?
No. Actually, social isolation is awesome for me. I’m getting so much done!
But I have a number of quite important long-form conversation to have, the outcome of each might make a substantial difference for my work or my personal life over the coming years. I can’t really have those conversations over video call. I really I need to be in the same place as the other person and commit several hours to several days.
Because the world is slow now, this would be an ideal time to do that...until one accounts for the reason the world is slow.
If so, then consider that we’ll also probably have faster and more widespread testing in the coming months. More efficacious treatments may emerge. These may permit socially responsible travel prior to the arrival of a vaccine.
This is a good point.
Then consider that some people may not want you around even if you tell them you’re immune.
I think the people I’m concerned with will have basically the same epistemic standards as myself, and so the question is can I have sufficient confidence that I am in fact immune?
At 26, you can expect to life around 55 more years. Let’s trade off against waiting for a vaccine, assuming the vaccine is 100% safe and effective, and also assume your quarantining strategy is 100% effective.
By giving yourself COVID-19, you’re losing about 55 years * 52 weeks per year * .002 chance of death = 6 weeks of life in expectation. That’s not counting the risk of chronic fatigue, or the time you might spend being sick.
Your motivations seem basically selfish, moderated by a desire to be socially responsible. If so, then consider that we’ll also probably have faster and more widespread testing in the coming months. More efficacious treatments may emerge. These may permit socially responsible travel prior to the arrival of a vaccine. Then consider that some people may not want you around even if you tell them you’re immune. And of course, the world’s going to continue being shut down even if you have antibodies in your system.
Does social distancing suck so bad for you that this trade off feels like it makes sense? What is the concrete activity you’d like to be able to do, that you can’t do without antibodies in your system?
No. Actually, social isolation is awesome for me. I’m getting so much done!
But I have a number of quite important long-form conversation to have, the outcome of each might make a substantial difference for my work or my personal life over the coming years. I can’t really have those conversations over video call. I really I need to be in the same place as the other person and commit several hours to several days.
Because the world is slow now, this would be an ideal time to do that...until one accounts for the reason the world is slow.
I would be worried about straight up lung, kidney, blood vessel, and heart damage in addition to the already stated chronic fatigue.
Good analysis.
This is a good point.
I think the people I’m concerned with will have basically the same epistemic standards as myself, and so the question is can I have sufficient confidence that I am in fact immune?