Add on the probability of “intentionally allowed to commit suicide” and the odds seemingly become quite high.
FWIW I find the book by Smith and Morowitz to be staggeringly illuminating.
I personally know two of the scientists spoken of in this post, and agree that greedy reductionism has a tendency to overshadow very interesting phenomena.
I find it fascinating that the modern range of lyme disease overlaps with the range of the chronic wasting prion disease of deer. The two large clusters of lyme in North America overlap with the more recent two clusters of wasting disease (later spread than the first major cluster further west). This suggests to me that there’s a common factor driving the spread of both, probably something about messed up forest ecology.
Do you have a good explanation to Moderna’s market price drop?
1 - it was tiny compared to recent changes
2 - the efficient market hypothesis is quite quite false.
destroyed normal life in substantial parts of the United States indefinitely
Huh? How does this follow? This mostly is in places with higher infection rates overall, and once most of the population is infected or vaccinated then all desire for mitigation by anyone goes away. It’s just about getting to the final state with more or less suffering.
This misses the role of private banks in creating currency. Every time they issue debt the amount of circulating currency goes up by an identical quantity.
I think there could be a 5% chance that the paleocene-eocene thermal maximum 55 million years ago was the result of a prior global industrial civilization. Conditional on that being the case, high probability they were birds and a decent possibility they lived on Antarctica.
We are an existence proof for smart industrial animals being a thing that can happen on Earth. We are not an existence proof of smart industrial animals lasting for geologically long periods of time. There is not necessarily reason to think that just because you are successful in an epoch that you burn the black rocks that you will continue to be so.
As you go back in time the fossil record degrades drastically and many species at this time are known from single digit numbers of specimens. The PETM resembles what we are doing to the earth system entirely too closely, from a large release of biogenic carbon within a few thousand years to the spike in mercury levels to ocean anoxia. At the time primates did not exist in significant diversity and any that did exist were tiny, but birds, whose brains differ from the default tetrapod brains in ways quite similar to the way that of primates do and allows very easy increase in neuron number, did exist in profound diversity.
We are tropical animals and spread across the entire world because we came from the hottest place on Earth and you can keep us warm just by wrapping us in clothes in a low-tech way. If somebody evolved on the coldest parts of Earth, you need high technology (refrigeration) to survive anywhere else and they could be limited to polar latitudes, including the only continent we have almost no geological record of and has been poorly explored—Antarctica. Antarctica and nearby continents also bore multiple great-ape-sized flightless bird lineages at this time, and was temperate while Canada was full of Amazon-style rainforest and the equator bore stifling hot supertropics.Corollary: Industrial civilization is an unstable self-limiting phenomenon and will be gone in centuries to millennia.
A significant set of possible models of such phenomena result in them being irreducibly personal and subjective, hampering detailed analysis.
The molecular details are not of a type that is caused by the pill.
These blood clots are unusual and triggered by immune-mediated platelet activation, and happening at higher rate than the base population in those subpopulations. It’s real and not the pill.
It’s also lower than the risk of the pill.
No sane major corporation is going to have a batch of 15 million doses and not test it to see if it is the thing it was meant to be before shipping it out, and having something in there that wasn’t supposed to be there should get found many times over by the tests they’d run in all worlds. Ordinary corporate reputation and liability are more than enough to motivate catching this error.
A company bought by Bayer shipped out many doses of blood products that they knew were contaminated with HIV.
Taking this off in a different direction.
The selection pressure driving these things into existence is HIGHLY convergent all around the world, with about four mutations appearing again and again and again. This is adaptation to the human host, not really evolution for immune evasion, especially considering that only like 30% of most populations at most has been infected.
You would expect immune evasion selection to be wildly divergent rather than convergent. What is mostly happening is an interaction between the fact that regions of spike protein that are on the surface of the spike and are involved in host interactions are evolving to do do well in a new host, and the fact that these functional regions of host interaction are under many selective pressures and more likely to be ‘sticky’ and places where functionally important antibodies tend to bind. Slight immune evasion is a side effect, not what drove them into existence in the first place, for the most part.
Additionally, there’s no reason to assume that all dark matter is just one thing. There could be multiple things going on, as long as most of the things going on don’t self-interact.
Heck, for that matter there could be a small (!) dark sector that DOES self-interact as long as its total mass was within the error bars for baryonic mass inferred from primordial nucleosynthesis.
The reason the power elite don’t talk to mortals is they don’t want competition
I remain extremely angry at the lack of clinical trials for indomethacin as an outpatient treatment.
The Bretton Woods conference adopted Keynes’ Bancor as the currency of international trade rather than the US dollar. This encouraged industrial development much more evenly across the world and prevented large amounts of the imbalanced financial flows that have given certain countries exorbitant power over others, driven others into the resource trap, and driven still others into foreign-denominated debt spirals.
There is also the fact that the top of the DOD was stuffed with loyalists in the immediate aftermath of the election and it would be in the president’s perceived interest to allow a mob to scare the crap out of or harm the legislature at that time.
Yeah I was going with my quick and dirty numbers from earlier. Way I see it what’s probably happening is that doubling time for Britain as a whole has been ~2 weeks both about a month ago and recently (eyeballing graph from worldometer), and you are probably talking about a new doubling time of ~1 week for this variant under identical conditions.
Redoing math for a two week starting doubling time and the stated change in doubling time you get a R value going from ~1.25 to just under or circa 1.5, so basically similar order.
News sources do not use precise language, and precise language matters here.
Taking an effective R value from ~1.2 to ~1.8 would WAY more than double the growth rate. I really don’t think that this makes sense, and that number for an increased R value seems like it should be referring to the unmitigated R0 value that is then reduced by behavioral interventions.EDIT: doubling time would go from 17 days to 4 days (!) with the above change of numbers. This doesn’t fit given what is currently observed.
An R0 going up by ~0.4-0.9 also fits well with my imputation of a ~15% increase in infectiousness, as estimates of an unmitigated R0 range from circa 3 to 5.
I think this is what happens when people don’t show their work.