Oh my god… in the Florida data, the numbers of that ‘not elsewhere classified’ category are now twice the number of official COVID-coded deaths, and 4x baseline!
This would mean that they are mislabeling two thirds of the deaths. If you add up the excess deaths of that code and the covid deaths, the death rate did not actually decline in that state at all and instead has been in a plateau since April.
Here’s a first-principles normalization—take national tests, and normalize the positives to the total number of tests performed. This assumes linear returns to testing which is wrong, but it produces a curve of the shape of ACTUAL infections (without telling you the true number, just its relative shape over time) that mirrors the death curve shifted by two weeks very closely:
I love it.
I can report that at a major southern university we are starting to get plans sent out by administration for a return to in person instruction (!) in mid August (!). They are refusing to mandate masks for students and are planning for way too many in person classes. Another nearby university is forcing faculty to get medical justification for not participating in classrooms.
They’ve picked their priorities, they’ll chew us up and spit us out.
At first I thought that the soial system implicitly trying to control an exponential with a sensor lag longer than the doubling time would be simply impossible, and there would be wild swings between exploding cases and cratering cases. But then I realized that the dial that is being turned is the doubling time itself, such that near homeostasis the doubling/halving time is extremely long and the delays in the system don’t matter as much.
That being said… South Carolina, man. They have entered a new exponential phase with a doubling time of much less than a week and we will get to see quite the excursion. These things still happen when people react faster than the delays in noticing people getting sick.
You drastically underestimate the difficulty of genetics.
I would be worried about straight up lung, kidney, blood vessel, and heart damage in addition to the already stated chronic fatigue.
The huge amount of unnecessary pesticides around me and the paucity of insect life compared to my childhood. This is a disaster and won’t end well.
Bats sustaining viruses that rip our lungs and blood vessels apart isn’t because of population structure, it’s because their immune systems are tuned to produce different responses than ours in a way that causes bat viruses to frequently cause messed up responses in other mammals. For reasons that are only just starting to be figured out, their inflammatory responses are turned way the hell down and their interferon responses are turned way the hell up. This means that a virus that has evolved to replicate in them is able to basically completely silence the interferon response of other mammals, being overclocked for the job. If other factors let it actually replicate, this means the early disease goes nearly unnoticed by the innate immune system until viral replication has reached obscene levels and the adaptive immune system becomes involved, in a frequently poorly-regulated response. The viruses are also used to facing a strong innate antiviral response from the start, so they replicate much faster and with more fallout in the absence of that response than one that has reached equilibrium with us would.
On another note, the innate immune response of jawed vertebrates has been reshaped by interaction with the adaptive immune response over evolutionary time and cannot be considered in isolation.
To be clear, the work I am speaking of is on enhancing the NAD salvage pathway preventing NAD depletion in stressed neurons. This treatment seems to drastically decrease neuron programmed cell death in response to brain injury, neurodegenerative diseases, and hypoxia.
The mose work showed great promise in brain injury and hypoxia and while it doesn’t stop the neurodegeneration from ALS and the like (the underlying damage is being done) the threshold for individual neurons dying is raised, so the mice are healthy for a long time before suddenly falling apart rather than slowly declining.
This is work being done by Calico and by Dr. McKnight. I will provide links when I’m no longer on my phone
There is a whole bunch of work on boosting NAD levels to suppress PARP effects on NAD depletion triggering neuron apoptosis...
I will definitely be having my parents take it if they get sick, and this is just one of the reasons. I can’t see how it would hurt acutely and there is a chance it will help acutely.
One of my parents got over cancer 10 years ago though so I am very uncertain about having them take it prophylactically on a chronic basis, especially since they are in a position to very easily nearly completely isolate. Given the biochemistry of NAD supplementation, encouraging nascent tumors to not kill themselves is one of the risks you may take with it.
For the most part, all those labels are just labels for where on the tree of all sequences it falls. There is almost no evidence of widespread functional mutants. They’re useful for tracking the spread of the virus around the globe.
There is one mutation in the S protein at the root of the European strains that you could *imagine* having an effect on the function of the fusion protein but there is no particularly strong evidence that it’s doing much—a little equivocal difference in the measured PCR cycles required for detection from samples, but that could have to do with the fact that they happened at different times when people were getting tested at different disease stages or on different equipment. It is more common more recently relative to the other lineages in Europe and America, but that could very easily just be because it is the only lineage in Italy and once Italy exploded its shrapnel founded a lot of new transmission chains all over Europe and America. It could very easily just be a bottleneck effect having to do with breaking into a new area.
Much more interesting are a few small lineages that have actually lost whole accessory proteins involved in suppressing the innate immune response, but that’s a total of like 7 patients found to have them.
I disagree profoundly with the last sentence.
The process continues when everything is perfect, but shocks undo it. If super-efficiency and super-specialization were optimal, the biosphere would have reached that point long ago.
Instead, everything is robust at the expense of efficiency at multiple levels, from individual cells to networks of ecological interactions. Super-optimized things do evolve, and sometimes spread explosively, but they are almost always shortlived and die out.
Smearing supply chains across the world and chasing them to the lowest labor costs and into very specialized locations produces a supply chain that while extremely efficient has zero surge capacity for unusual circumstances, is brittle and liable to lock up at a moment’s notice, and requires far too many state actors to not be at cross purposes.
NOTHING in biology is optimized for efficiency. Everything is robust at the expense of efficiency. Everything too efficient yet brittle died off long ago. A potato manages 0.5% conversion of sunlight to starch, nowhere near the theoretical yield of its photochemistry. But if you move it from shade to sun, it doesn’t burn up its electron transport chain (which is harder than you’d think for photochemistry!), and if you move it from sun to shade it gets by without starving. If a virus chews up your lungs, you have fat stores to draw on rather than only functional tissue and the capacity to get by on lower lung capacity until the crisis is dealt with and regeneration can happen.
Nothing that has stood the test of time is nearly so centralized and brittle and over optimized as the current global civilization. Regardless of the end effects, things that last will go away from that direction.
EDIT: This does not only apply to international supply chains. Over optimization and over centralization and giganticism of players of the food supply chain has resulted in a system within the US in which is untenable unless everything goes right. Closing restaurants has resulted in farms that only sell to specialized suppliers being unable to get their product into domestic supply lines leading to absurd waste and a few crowded nodes in the meatpacking industry represent both absurdly effective viral breeding grounds and critical points that are threatening to take down large fractions of the domestic meat supply. Other examples abound.
EDIT: One could make the counterargument about how everything on Earth functions as part of an ecology rather than being fully self-sufficient, but ecologies are systems with huge numbers of interacting parts that are interchangeable, not small numbers of super specialized but independent actors. Symbiosis exists but results in loss of individuation once it gets severe enough...
NY is the place in America we have the most data, and are most likely to notice less common effects.
It fits with all the autopsy and clinical data that coagulation issues are a major cause of morbidity in severe cases, and the fact that children with non-severe cases are having an anomalously high rate of skin lesions in fingers and toes characteristic of circulation problems.
The article seems more of a “this is a thing that’s happening” article than a “this is a major cause of death” thing.
Still, it looks like it’ll be important to follow recoveries for an increase in circulation issues going forward.
UPDATE as of 4/28/2019.
Others coming to this exact same distribution more rigorously.
Compiling rigorous data, the compatible range is circa 0.5% to 1% with a central tendency of 0.8%.
The effects of measures on the spread take weeks to show up in the data.
If the doubling time hadn’t cratered, the hospitalization rate would’ve remained exponential. At the time of posting it was comparatively flat, and I estimated.
The half came from the fact that it usually takes ~3 weeks to die, that the exponential spread had only stopped a few weeks earlier, and a drawing of a triangle and square representing a rise and flat that I drew a vertical line through.
This fits perfectly with the numbers I have been coming up with based on total deaths (~0.2% of NYC) and infection to fatality ratios that are coming out of many many MANY pieces of GOOD research (rather than the denialists and minimizers getting a LOT of airtime) − 0.5% to 1%.