We’re in a slow-motion fuel crisis, already baked into the counterfactual petroleum supply gap. Even if the Iran War ended, immediately and completely and unambiguously, the fuel crisis would still be happening.
How will humanity respond to this?
Leaders, governments, corporations, individuals, and militaries are all notoriously hard to predict. This is the thread for trying anyway.
(Note: This thread is about the petroleum supply disruption downstream of the Iran War, not the Iran War itself. oil production and distribution would not recover to prewar levels for months or years.)
One key question to model: How long until certain operational minimums are tripped in the US? (Explanation: Refineries and other facilities can’t run with a too-small nonzero amount of oil.)
I would conjecture that this would never happen due to this particular war.
Basically, the US is currently a net exporter of oil (unlike some earlier periods in its history), and the government can impose export restrictions if necessary.