Crude oil has one of the deepest futures markets in the world. What do traders on these markets think will happen to the price of oil?
In late Feb 2026, before the Israel–Iran war began, Brent crude was about $70 per barrel.
Today Brent is about $94–95 per barrel.
The Brent futures market is pricing oil about six months from now at roughly $82–84 per barrel.
The Brent futures market is pricing oil about twelve months from now at roughly $78–80 per barrel.
That doesn’t sound too bad. I don’t know how to interpret those numbers though, so I searched for statements by people that do. I found that
The IEA’s Executive Director has said the combined impacts amount to “the greatest threat to global energy security in history.” The war in the region that began on 28 February has impeded energy trade flows through the Strait, creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
There’s a conspiracybrained answer that “they’re pushing down the futures”, but like… who? With what money?
However, there’s also a mass-human-ignorance answer that “the traders put more stock in the Trump Iran Deal Imminent press release cycle than they should”.
Or like, maybe they expect a bloody ground invasion to restore Hormuz and production capacity… that also wraps up everything within a year?
Am interested in others’ thoughts here (possible leading-indicators to look for, alternative hypotheses, etc), that’s what this thread is for!
Crude oil has one of the deepest futures markets in the world. What do traders on these markets think will happen to the price of oil?
In late Feb 2026, before the Israel–Iran war began, Brent crude was about $70 per barrel.
Today Brent is about $94–95 per barrel.
The Brent futures market is pricing oil about six months from now at roughly $82–84 per barrel.
The Brent futures market is pricing oil about twelve months from now at roughly $78–80 per barrel.
That doesn’t sound too bad.I don’t know how to interpret those numbers though, so I searched for statements by people that do. I found thathttps://www.iea.org/topics/the-middle-east-and-global-energy-markets#:~:text=The IEA’s Executive,oil market.
There’s a conspiracybrained answer that “they’re pushing down the futures”, but like… who? With what money?
However, there’s also a mass-human-ignorance answer that “the traders put more stock in the Trump Iran Deal Imminent press release cycle than they should”.
Or like, maybe they expect a bloody ground invasion to restore Hormuz and production capacity… that also wraps up everything within a year?
Am interested in others’ thoughts here (possible leading-indicators to look for, alternative hypotheses, etc), that’s what this thread is for!