I don’t think your bet has very much relationship to your post title or the first 2⁄3 of the body. The metaculus question resolved based on “according to widespread media and historical consensus.” which does not require any automation or feasible automation of tasks or occupations, let alone all of them.
Thanks, Dagon. Below is how superintelligent AI is defined in the question from Metaculus related to my bet proposal. I think it very much points towards full automation.
“Superintelligent Artificial Intelligence” (SAI) is defined for the purposes of this question as an AI which can perform any task humans can perform in 2021, as well or superior to the best humans in their domain. The SAI may be able to perform these tasks themselves, or be capable of designing sub-agents with these capabilities (for instance the SAI may design robots capable of beating professional football players which are not successful brain surgeons, and design top brain surgeons which are not football players). Tasks include (but are not limited to): performing in top ranks among professional e-sports leagues, performing in top ranks among physical sports, preparing and serving food, providing emotional and psychotherapeutic support, discovering scientific insights which could win 2021 Nobel prizes, creating original art and entertainment, and having professional-level software design and AI design capabilities.
As an AI improves in capacity, it may not be clear at which point the SAI has become able to perform any task as well as top humans. It will be defined that the AI is superintelligent if, in less than 7 days in a non-externally-constrained environment, the AI already has or can learn/invent the capacity to do any given task. A “non-externally-constrained environment” here means, for instance, access to the internet and compute and resources similar to contemporaneous AIs.
I don’t think your bet has very much relationship to your post title or the first 2⁄3 of the body. The metaculus question resolved based on “according to widespread media and historical consensus.” which does not require any automation or feasible automation of tasks or occupations, let alone all of them.
Thanks, Dagon. Below is how superintelligent AI is defined in the question from Metaculus related to my bet proposal. I think it very much points towards full automation.