A pandemic that’s substantially worse than COVID-19 is a serious possibility. If one happens, having a good mask could save your life. A high quality reusable mask is only $30 to $60, and I think it’s well worth it to buy one for yourself. Worth it enough that I think you should order one now if you don’t have one already.
But if you’re not convinced, let’s do some rough estimation.
COVID-19 killed about 0.2% of people (20M of 8B). The 1918 flu killed more like 2.5% (50M of 2B). Estimating from two data points is fraught, but this gives you perhaps a 0.02% annual chance of dying in a pandemic. Engineering could make this much worse, especially given progress in AI, but let’s set that aside for now to make a more conservative case.
A reusable mask (“elastomeric respirator”) would be really valuable to have, if things got really bad. Let’s imagine they cut your risk of dying by half: the rated efficacy is much higher (99%+) but real-world use isn’t perfect, especially over the months or years another pandemic could last.
A mask should last at least ten years if unused, and over that decade it would drop this conservative estimate of your risk of pandemic-induced death from 0.2% to 0.1%. If you, as the US DoT does, value not dying at $14M, then this is worth $14k. Even if the benefit of a mask is 100x lower than we estimated ($140), it’s still worth it to buy one.
I like geeking out over masks and there are a lot of options. I have a bunch of models, and if you’d like to come try them sometime (next EA Boston meetup on 10/26?) I’d be happy to show you what they’re like. But if you just want to pick one and be done with it, leaving it in a box that you more likely than not don’t need to open, a time tested but somewhat garish option is the 3M 6200 mask in Small ($17), Medium ($15), Large ($19) plus a set of 3M 2091 p100 filters ($7/pair):
I’d also recommend buying one now instead of trying to notice when a pandemic is coming: buying now ensures you get one instead of scrambling when everyone else is competing over a supply that can’t keep up, and everyone who prepares ahead of time helps reduce shortages when a disaster comes.
I noticed that mask has an exhalation valve. Aren’t those less effective at protecting other people than using a mask without a valve?
Yes. On the other hand they have less condensation, are easier to breathe in, and are generally much easier to find in higher protection factors (I’m not aware of any valveless 99%+ efficacy masks)
I think it would be great if you can gather some data about how many people prefer which of the options and publish it.
I don’t doubt the conclusion, but I think we would be buying (life expectancy—age) life years instead of 1 life.
You’re can substitute your own value for “what would I pay not to die”, but unless your expected number of remaining life years is really low I doubt this changes much?
Hell yeah.
I bought one, plus some filters.
Without disagreeing with the conclusion, I think this is a poor discussion of the pros and cons. The big con is weirdness points. That’s basically why people don’t do it. Probably if you articulate that it’s easy to see that it’s a win, but if you don’t articulate it...
Yes, they’re supposed to be more effective. I think this is emotionally difficult because it sounds like a Pascal’s Wager. Yes, you should invest at the prepper margin, but how far? How many other points are comparably far down the list? What should I do before this? Here’s a concrete point: if I have a beard and an N95, I will achieve more by shaving than by switching to a reusable mask. Shaving is pretty low cost (especially, conditionally shaving in the event of crisis), not a tradeoff with changing masks, but knowing to shave is important and competes with mental resources.
Here are two other advantages over paper masks: you say elsewhere that it is more cost effective than paper masks. If you are already committed to having a stock of masks, this makes it much less like a Pascal’s Wager and more of free lunch. And I suspect that they are more comfortable, which is important for actually using them.
We don’t need to shave ahead of time anyway (we can do it when the pandemic is already here), so it doesn’t compete with mental resources now.
The masks you link to have an exhaust valve, which makes sense for the intended non-medical use cases, but in a pandemic scenario that means the mask will protect the wearer from infected others, but will not protect others from a (potentially unaware) infected wearer. Aside from the ethical implications of that, if one lives in a place like Massachusetts or California or New York, it is not likely to satisfy masking requirements. Do you have an alternative suggestion without the valve?
The first one on this page, the ElastoMask Pro, filters bidirectionally. I have one and like it, very breathable, good deal. Though it’s one of the worst for intelligibility.
What if you wait to buy the same mask until the pandemic starts? Maybe the cost doubles, but rather than having to buy ten masks over a 100-year period, you only have to buy one.
I think cost much more than doubles: at the beginning of covid high-quality masks were essentially not available at all. If you imagine something like uncontained SARS I expect this would be even worse.
That’s an interesting recommendation. I’m unfamiliar with buying reusable masks, do you know a good way to decide whether to buy a small, medium or large mask?
The best is to try them on and see how well they fit your particular face. But very roughly the bigger the distance between your chin and the bridge of your nose is the bigger a mask you need.
Also useful for filtering out the smoke from forest fires although it gets tedious to wear one all day for days in a row, so in addition to a mask it is nice to own an air purifier with a HEPA rating or a MERV rating for when you are indoors.
I have like 5 days of water saved for me/partner. I figure 2 days no water could happen under normal disaster situations (like 9/11 10 blocks away or something idk) but getting out into weeks is beyond my prepper aspirations. Does that track?