View and bet in Manifold prediction markets on Lesswrong
(Crossposted from EA Forum)
Links to prediction markets on Manifold Markets now show a preview of the market on hover.
You can also embed markets directly in posts:
This lets you bet on yes/no questions without leaving Lesswrong! You do need to be logged into Manifold, otherwise when you try to bet it will first bring you to a screen to log in via your google account.
How to embed a market
Just go the market (or create one), copy the link, and paste it in the editor. It will automatically turn into an embed like the one above.
You can get the link from:
The address bar
The copy link button below a market you created
Or the three dot menu above the chart
Much thanks to Ben West for reviewing the code for this, which was heavily based on the previous integrations for Our World in Data, Metaculus, and Elicit.
Feedback: When I tried to bet, it opened up a modal that I had no way of closing, which made for a pretty frustrating experience. Probably shouldn’t be too hard to fix.
I’ve changed the betting interface now to be easier to use, albeit with less information
I tried right now the embedding and it did not work unless I activated the “Lesswrong Docs” editing mode instead of the default “Markdown” one, that was not clear
Of course, you can embed markets in comments as well!