Really cool analysis. I’d be curious to see the implications on a BioAnchors timelines model if you straightforwardly incorporate this compute forecast.
We looked more into this because we wanted to get a better understanding of Ajeya’s estimate of price-performance doubling every 2.5 years. Originally, some people I talked to were skeptical and thought that 2.5 years is too conservative. I now think that 2.5 years is probably insufficiently conservative in the long run.
However, I also want to note that there are still reasons to believe a doubling time of 2 years or less could be realistic due to progress in specialization or other breakthroughs. I still have large uncertainty about the doubling time but my median estimate got a bit more conservative.
We have not incorporated this particular estimate into the bio anchor’s model. Mostly, because the model is a prediction about a particular type of GPU and I think it will be modified or replaced once miniaturization is no longer an option. So, I don’t expect progress to entirely stop in the next decade, just slow down a bit.
Really cool analysis. I’d be curious to see the implications on a BioAnchors timelines model if you straightforwardly incorporate this compute forecast.
We looked more into this because we wanted to get a better understanding of Ajeya’s estimate of price-performance doubling every 2.5 years. Originally, some people I talked to were skeptical and thought that 2.5 years is too conservative. I now think that 2.5 years is probably insufficiently conservative in the long run.
However, I also want to note that there are still reasons to believe a doubling time of 2 years or less could be realistic due to progress in specialization or other breakthroughs. I still have large uncertainty about the doubling time but my median estimate got a bit more conservative.
We have not incorporated this particular estimate into the bio anchor’s model. Mostly, because the model is a prediction about a particular type of GPU and I think it will be modified or replaced once miniaturization is no longer an option. So, I don’t expect progress to entirely stop in the next decade, just slow down a bit.
But lots of open questions all over the place.
I’d be interested in the implications too, but I don’t see how that would work, since bioanchors just looks at price-performance iirc.