Johns Hopkins seems to report almost 3000 deaths yesterday alone; this seems wildly inconsistent with your death estimates. I’m not sure how to follow up on your estimates, do you have a take on what’s happening?
EDIT: after looking at comments I looked back at the death reporting; I was confusing your headline/prediction numbers which are daily figured with the chart, which are regional weekly figures. I was thinking “how is 3000/day compatible with 2000 all week?!” But that was just me misreading the data.
The Covid Tracking Project’s numbers tend to be slightly below Johns Hopkins for a given day, CTP has 2733. Sometimes that is because some data came in late and it gets revised; the overall numbers are only off by low single digits percent generally. The previous day, I think CTP’s number is slightly higher, at 2,714, which is above what they say was the old record. So it’s possible that JH reported some deaths yesterday that CTP has recorded on Tuesday.
The reason it looks like 3000 deaths is incompatible with the numbers above is because reporting is wildly different on different days. On the 29th there were only 803 deaths reported, on the 30th 1166, and that extended to several extra days because of the holidays.
My guess is that these numbers now represent more catch-up reporting than usual, but it’s only a modestly bigger version of a known phenomenon. This is why I use 7-day rolling averages for everything.
Johns Hopkins seems to report almost 3000 deaths yesterday alone; this seems wildly inconsistent with your death estimates. I’m not sure how to follow up on your estimates, do you have a take on what’s happening?
EDIT: after looking at comments I looked back at the death reporting; I was confusing your headline/prediction numbers which are daily figured with the chart, which are regional weekly figures. I was thinking “how is 3000/day compatible with 2000 all week?!” But that was just me misreading the data.
https://apnews.com/article/public-health-coronavirus-pandemic-thanksgiving-cfc242870ccad7a41c3cc858bfe24e49
The graph here is a weekly average, including several days of the thanksgiving week that basically didn’t report half of what was happening.
The Covid Tracking Project’s numbers tend to be slightly below Johns Hopkins for a given day, CTP has 2733. Sometimes that is because some data came in late and it gets revised; the overall numbers are only off by low single digits percent generally. The previous day, I think CTP’s number is slightly higher, at 2,714, which is above what they say was the old record. So it’s possible that JH reported some deaths yesterday that CTP has recorded on Tuesday.
The reason it looks like 3000 deaths is incompatible with the numbers above is because reporting is wildly different on different days. On the 29th there were only 803 deaths reported, on the 30th 1166, and that extended to several extra days because of the holidays.
My guess is that these numbers now represent more catch-up reporting than usual, but it’s only a modestly bigger version of a known phenomenon. This is why I use 7-day rolling averages for everything.