I believe Duncan that he got incredible success rates on his courses. I believe him not because I have seen him do it—I haven’t even watched any of the linked videos. I believe him because he believes it, because it fits with what I have read from him, and—crucially—because I have seen it quite often in many other domains e.g. with teachers or influencers (providing base rates for reference classes; it may also have helped to have had a thousand-year-old vampire father-in-law). But also because I recognize that the things that Duncan teaches are constructed and selected to be teachable. Just take the Shoulder Advisor: He engineered it simple, useful, engaging, and safe. And he is good at teaching. It is more than that. Something that I have learned to recognize over time: Call it a social choreography. Steering the world into desirable states. That’s why things that might prevent acceptance of the great thing get diminished, and things that benefit it get strengthened from multiple sides.
I also believe Christian because I have met him and trust him. I have seen him teach complex things and judge him to be well-calibrated in this. I have tried the focusing he taught and Duncan’s true names and things in between. From successfully teaching sequence-level stuff to my kids, I know what ends you have to go to and what sometimes cannot be (efficiently) taught. That inferential distance sometimes can be bridged and sometimes not. There are trade-offs that create bright places in teachability-space—but it may make reaching other parts harder. With focusing in particular, I have been at the true names place for a very long time. Happily. But I know that there is more complexity, and with patience, luck, talent, or good teachers—other types of teachers maybe—more mental tools could get unlocked.
(Strong approval for pointing out the existence of an overlap where we’re both right; I was clumsily attempting to do that by pointing out in the opener that Christian may just straightforwardly be envisioning a more mature and complex skill than the one I was claiming is quickly transmissible.)
You are both right.
Of course.
I believe Duncan that he got incredible success rates on his courses. I believe him not because I have seen him do it—I haven’t even watched any of the linked videos. I believe him because he believes it, because it fits with what I have read from him, and—crucially—because I have seen it quite often in many other domains e.g. with teachers or influencers (providing base rates for reference classes; it may also have helped to have had a thousand-year-old vampire father-in-law). But also because I recognize that the things that Duncan teaches are constructed and selected to be teachable. Just take the Shoulder Advisor: He engineered it simple, useful, engaging, and safe. And he is good at teaching. It is more than that. Something that I have learned to recognize over time: Call it a social choreography. Steering the world into desirable states. That’s why things that might prevent acceptance of the great thing get diminished, and things that benefit it get strengthened from multiple sides.
I also believe Christian because I have met him and trust him. I have seen him teach complex things and judge him to be well-calibrated in this. I have tried the focusing he taught and Duncan’s true names and things in between. From successfully teaching sequence-level stuff to my kids, I know what ends you have to go to and what sometimes cannot be (efficiently) taught. That inferential distance sometimes can be bridged and sometimes not. There are trade-offs that create bright places in teachability-space—but it may make reaching other parts harder. With focusing in particular, I have been at the true names place for a very long time. Happily. But I know that there is more complexity, and with patience, luck, talent, or good teachers—other types of teachers maybe—more mental tools could get unlocked.
(Strong approval for pointing out the existence of an overlap where we’re both right; I was clumsily attempting to do that by pointing out in the opener that Christian may just straightforwardly be envisioning a more mature and complex skill than the one I was claiming is quickly transmissible.)