You reflect on your memories. You notice that they point to living in a consistent universe. This is expected on living in a consistent universe. This is not expected on being a BB. Therefore you update in favor of not being a BB.
And the same applies for whether you should be indifferent between observer moments or theories.
Well, then you take that consistent universe at face value and notice it should (maybe) produce shitton of BBs. That’s the point of discussion of this post, I guess.
We started from considering two types of probability experiments:
Sample between all the observer moments
Sample between being and not being BB
P(BB|1) ~ 1
P(BB|2) = 1⁄2
By the principle of uncertainty we are indifferent between the two.
P(1) = P(2) = 1⁄2
Therefore
P(BB) = P(BB|1)P(1) + P(BB|2)P(2) ~ 3⁄4
And only then we account for the evidence, reflecting on our stable memories. Which simultaneously update us in favor of 2. and against being BB in general
P(SM|2) >>P(SM|1)
P(SM|BB) << P(SM|not BB)
Therefore
P(1|SM) ~ 0
P(2|SM) ~ 1
Which very quickly updates us to near certainty that we are not BBs.
Yeah, it doesn’t, but not through your argument.
That is my argument.
You reflect on your memories. You notice that they point to living in a consistent universe. This is expected on living in a consistent universe. This is not expected on being a BB. Therefore you update in favor of not being a BB.
And the same applies for whether you should be indifferent between observer moments or theories.
Well, then you take that consistent universe at face value and notice it should (maybe) produce shitton of BBs. That’s the point of discussion of this post, I guess.
We already did it.
We started from considering two types of probability experiments:
Sample between all the observer moments
Sample between being and not being BB
P(BB|1) ~ 1
P(BB|2) = 1⁄2
By the principle of uncertainty we are indifferent between the two.
P(1) = P(2) = 1⁄2
Therefore
P(BB) = P(BB|1)P(1) + P(BB|2)P(2) ~ 3⁄4
And only then we account for the evidence, reflecting on our stable memories. Which simultaneously update us in favor of 2. and against being BB in general
P(SM|2) >>P(SM|1)
P(SM|BB) << P(SM|not BB)
Therefore
P(1|SM) ~ 0
P(2|SM) ~ 1
Which very quickly updates us to near certainty that we are not BBs.
P(BB|SM) ~ 0