We started from considering two types of probability experiments:
Sample between all the observer moments
Sample between being and not being BB
P(BB|1) ~ 1
P(BB|2) = 1⁄2
By the principle of uncertainty we are indifferent between the two.
P(1) = P(2) = 1⁄2
Therefore
P(BB) = P(BB|1)P(1) + P(BB|2)P(2) ~ 3⁄4
And only then we account for the evidence, reflecting on our stable memories. Which simultaneously update us in favor of 2. and against being BB in general
P(SM|2) >>P(SM|1)
P(SM|BB) << P(SM|not BB)
Therefore
P(1|SM) ~ 0
P(2|SM) ~ 1
Which very quickly updates us to near certainty that we are not BBs.
We already did it.
We started from considering two types of probability experiments:
Sample between all the observer moments
Sample between being and not being BB
P(BB|1) ~ 1
P(BB|2) = 1⁄2
By the principle of uncertainty we are indifferent between the two.
P(1) = P(2) = 1⁄2
Therefore
P(BB) = P(BB|1)P(1) + P(BB|2)P(2) ~ 3⁄4
And only then we account for the evidence, reflecting on our stable memories. Which simultaneously update us in favor of 2. and against being BB in general
P(SM|2) >>P(SM|1)
P(SM|BB) << P(SM|not BB)
Therefore
P(1|SM) ~ 0
P(2|SM) ~ 1
Which very quickly updates us to near certainty that we are not BBs.
P(BB|SM) ~ 0