“possible” in this usage is always a fact about Bob (or whoever), and supports whatever conclusions in Bob’s mind to the degree that Bob is correct.
Keep in mind that “evidence” is what you know on your map, not what’s true in the territory. “the evidence” doesn’t exist in an objective shared pool of observations, each agent has a set of evidence they use to form beliefs. “possible” in this sense, like “probability”, is a statement about one’s knowledge, not about the universe.
There are other uses of the word which mean closer to “a configuration of the universe that’s reachable from the current state”, but we probably can never access that level of truth.
I think you’re holding Bob to an impossible standard. When you say things like ” it’simpossibleto find a contradiction between epiphenomenalism and everything else we know ”, you’re implying that Bob is overreaching unless he knows and indexes “everything else we know”. Bob’s description of plausible (compatible with everything I know, and with everything you can point out to me that I should know) seems closer to a reasonable colloquial use of “possible”.
Of course. Neither you nor Bob is rational enough to just invoke Aumann agree. Arguments and explanations about HOW it’s compatible with A, B, and C are necessary for you to understand why he claims something is possible. But remember that arguments aren’t evidence—that’s just bob helping you rearrange your knowledge, not new knowledge. It doesn’t change whether something is “possible” for him, or whether it’s “possible” in the world, only whether it’s “possible” for you.
Thinking more about this, I think I’d rather use “plausable” than “possible” when talking about beliefs and evidence. It’s more accurate and doesn’t carry an implication of objective truth. So arguments and explanations don’t change plausability for Bob (unless you present arguments showing incompatibility), they change it for you, and have zero impact on physical possibility.
“possible” in this usage is always a fact about Bob (or whoever), and supports whatever conclusions in Bob’s mind to the degree that Bob is correct.
Keep in mind that “evidence” is what you know on your map, not what’s true in the territory. “the evidence” doesn’t exist in an objective shared pool of observations, each agent has a set of evidence they use to form beliefs. “possible” in this sense, like “probability”, is a statement about one’s knowledge, not about the universe.
There are other uses of the word which mean closer to “a configuration of the universe that’s reachable from the current state”, but we probably can never access that level of truth.
Yeah, my post talks about possibility w.r.t. a shared set of scientific evidence.
I think you’re holding Bob to an impossible standard. When you say things like ” it’s impossible to find a contradiction between epiphenomenalism and everything else we know ”, you’re implying that Bob is overreaching unless he knows and indexes “everything else we know”. Bob’s description of plausible (compatible with everything I know, and with everything you can point out to me that I should know) seems closer to a reasonable colloquial use of “possible”.
I’d still want to see some actual arguments that X is compatible with A, B, C etc. before accepting Bob’s far reaching conclusions.
Of course. Neither you nor Bob is rational enough to just invoke Aumann agree. Arguments and explanations about HOW it’s compatible with A, B, and C are necessary for you to understand why he claims something is possible. But remember that arguments aren’t evidence—that’s just bob helping you rearrange your knowledge, not new knowledge. It doesn’t change whether something is “possible” for him, or whether it’s “possible” in the world, only whether it’s “possible” for you.
Thinking more about this, I think I’d rather use “plausable” than “possible” when talking about beliefs and evidence. It’s more accurate and doesn’t carry an implication of objective truth. So arguments and explanations don’t change plausability for Bob (unless you present arguments showing incompatibility), they change it for you, and have zero impact on physical possibility.