Not a 1 in 7 chance that Christianity is right, a 1 in 7 chance that there is a God.
That’s not what “assigning 100% probability” looks like.
Okay…
Imagine, if instead of talking about a (seemingly, to you) difficult question like “Does ivermectin work?”, it was a painfully obvious one like “Do you have a nose?”. If she had been asked “What would convince you that you don’t have a nose?” and she responded “I have a nose”, would not the subtext obviously be “and I’m not going to entertain your motivated attempts to gaslight me into questioning what I can see clear as day”? Would not that “Fuck you, you need to show me something surprising before I even take you seriously enough to engage with your (seemingly) nonsense hypotheticals” response seem fitting?
I’m not sure in what way this is intended to be a counter-argument?
The assumption here is that someone should have 100% certainty that they have a nose on their face (unless they’re Tyrion Lannister) and if they were questioned in such a way about it evidence to this it would be reasonable to say “I have a nose.”
So my problem is that she’s treating something that’s still being researched with this same level of certainty.
Not a 1 in 7 chance that Christianity is right, a 1 in 7 chance that there is a God.
If there is a god and we’re simplifying complex things to the point of “Christianity is right” or “Christianity is wrong”, then Christianity is right and Dawkins is wrong. The point stands that Dawkins has not been acting consistently with the idea that there’s a 1 in 7 chance that he’s wrong about the big one.
The assumption here is that someone should have 100% certainty that they have a nose on their face
No, the point is the opposite.
Not only should people not have 100% certainty that they have a nose, they also don’t have that certainty—even when they make unqualified statements like “I have a nose” in response to “What could convince you that you don’t?”
That’s why they’ll say things like “A mirror would show me to have a nose” rather than “Even if a mirror shows no now, I’ll still know I have one”.
So my problem is that she’s treating something that’s still being researched with this same level of certainty.
Yes, I see that. And you could be right that she’s overconfident here.
However, ironically, you’re being overconfident here. The fact that it’s still being researched is not enough to prove a thing to be unknowable to those who have looked at the data and know how to properly analyze it. Read That Alien Message for an intuition pump about how far things can be taken in principle.
Her confidence being higher than you think should be possible means one of two things (or some combination). Either she’s irrationally confident, or she’s calibrated and better at discerning the truth than you realize can even be done. If you jump straight from “(S)he is more confident than I’d expect someone to be” to concluding “They’re being irrational” without first examining and ruling out “They know things I don’t”, you are going to systematically throw away the perspectives that matter most.
Not a 1 in 7 chance that Christianity is right, a 1 in 7 chance that there is a God.
Okay…
I’m not sure in what way this is intended to be a counter-argument?
The assumption here is that someone should have 100% certainty that they have a nose on their face (unless they’re Tyrion Lannister) and if they were questioned in such a way about it evidence to this it would be reasonable to say “I have a nose.”
So my problem is that she’s treating something that’s still being researched with this same level of certainty.
If there is a god and we’re simplifying complex things to the point of “Christianity is right” or “Christianity is wrong”, then Christianity is right and Dawkins is wrong. The point stands that Dawkins has not been acting consistently with the idea that there’s a 1 in 7 chance that he’s wrong about the big one.
No, the point is the opposite.
Not only should people not have 100% certainty that they have a nose, they also don’t have that certainty—even when they make unqualified statements like “I have a nose” in response to “What could convince you that you don’t?”
That’s why they’ll say things like “A mirror would show me to have a nose” rather than “Even if a mirror shows no now, I’ll still know I have one”.
Yes, I see that. And you could be right that she’s overconfident here.
However, ironically, you’re being overconfident here. The fact that it’s still being researched is not enough to prove a thing to be unknowable to those who have looked at the data and know how to properly analyze it. Read That Alien Message for an intuition pump about how far things can be taken in principle.
Her confidence being higher than you think should be possible means one of two things (or some combination). Either she’s irrationally confident, or she’s calibrated and better at discerning the truth than you realize can even be done. If you jump straight from “(S)he is more confident than I’d expect someone to be” to concluding “They’re being irrational” without first examining and ruling out “They know things I don’t”, you are going to systematically throw away the perspectives that matter most.
You don’t need a mirror to see your nose.