Not sure how to interpret the question. Some benchmark scores are somewhat lower today than AI 2027 predicted, and our new model takes them into account, so in some sense it’s already diverging, but only very slightly. 2026 should see a big divergence though, one that’s clearly not just noise. And then, obviously, 2027 will look totally different (on the median trajectory).
Newer better timelines model mainly. Still working on it. But also, METR’s downlift study, GPT-5 being on trend, various misc other things.
What is the first point at which your new model diverges from the AI 2027 timeline?
Not sure how to interpret the question. Some benchmark scores are somewhat lower today than AI 2027 predicted, and our new model takes them into account, so in some sense it’s already diverging, but only very slightly. 2026 should see a big divergence though, one that’s clearly not just noise. And then, obviously, 2027 will look totally different (on the median trajectory).