A list of things that “everyone knows you should do” that I have gained value from NOT doing:
- health things recommended by “experts” that few people do and are therefore not lindy - drink lots of water—diminishing marginal returns. if you have to get to pee at night you may be drinking too much - sunglasses—outdoor light improves your eyesight and makes you more alert. - diet stuff. eating a lot of vegetables, eating no vegetables, cutting salt, cutting fat, cutting carbs—nutrition is not solved, your body is a complex system, and your body is not like other bodies for reasons no one really knows. - avoid fast food - drink red wine - don’t waste food - avoid nicotine - buy a car - get a mortgage for a house - save lots of money in a retirement account and buy index funds - shower daily - use shampoo - wear shoes - walk - sleep under a blanket
I’ve decided lately that people regularly get confused, on a number of subjects, by the difference between science and engineering. … Tl;dr: Science is sensitive and finds facts; engineering is robust and gives praxes. Many problems happen when we confuse science for engineering and completely modify our praxis based on the result of a couple of studies in an unsettled area. …
This means two things. First is that we need to understand things much better for engineering than for science. In science it’s fine to say “The true effect is between +3 and −7 with 95% probability”. If that’s what we know, then that’s what we know. And an experiment that shrinks the bell curve by half a unit is useful. For engineering, we generally need to have a much better idea of what the true effect is. (Imagine trying to build a device based on the information that acceleration due to gravity is probably between 9 and 13 m/s^2).
Second is that science in general cares about much smaller effects than engineering does. It was a very long time before engineering needed relativistic corrections due to gravity, say. A fact can be true but not (yet) useful or relevant, and then it’s in the domain of science but not engineering.
Why does this matter?
The distinction is, I think fairly clear when we talk about physics. … But people get much more confused when we move over to, say, psychology, or sociology, or nutrition. Researchers are doing a lot of science on these subjects, and doing good work. So there’s a ton of papers out there saying that eggs are good, or eggs are bad, or eggs are good for you but only until next Monday or whatever.
And people have, often, one of two reactions to this situation. The first is to read one study and say “See, here’s the scientific study. It says eggs are bad for you. Why are you still eating eggs? Are you denying the science?” And the second reaction is to say that obviously the scientists can’t agree, and so we don’t know anything and maybe the whole scientific approach is flawed.
But the real situation is that we’re struggling to develop a science of nutrition. And that shit is hard. We’ve worked hard, and we know some things. But we don’t really have enough information to do engineering, to say “Okay, to optimize cardiovascular health you need to cut your simple carbs by 7%, eat an extra 10g of monounsaturated fats every day, and eat 200g of protein every Wednesday” or whatever. We just don’t know enough.
And this is where folk traditions come in. Folk traditions are attempts to answer questions that we need decent answers to, that have been developed over time, and that are presumably non-horrible because they haven’t failed obviously and spectacularly yet. A person who ate “Like my grandma” is probably on average at least as healthy as a person who tried to follow every trendy bit of scientistic nutrition advice from the past thirty years.
Caveat: people differ in body odor based on genetics, hormones, and armpit microbiome. I personally am privileged to not smell bad, therefore I don’t shower until my skin or hair starts to feel icky (a few days).
I used to get dandruff a lot even back when I was showering daily. I saw r/HaircareScience saying sulfates and other chemicals in typical shampoos dry out the scalp and make it overcorrect by producing more oil. this matches my experience. Shampoo is like coffee; it creates dependency. Later, when I stopped showering daily, I did some experimentation and found that if I used shampoo, my scalp would actually feel worse the day after. So I just went cold turkey. Now, my hair routine is: brush it every morning, use normal conditioner every time I shower, and use clarifying conditioner if my hair feels icky.
Shoes
I saw people on r/parkour talk about running barefoot, so I gave it a try. The impact hurt at first, but I focused on landing on my forefoot, I immediately learned the technique and honed it over a few runs. Then I was able to use this technique even while having my shoes on.
At the time, I reasoned that this skill would allow me to be prepared in scenarios where I was wearing high heels or something, because I had the option to take them off and run. Which is true but moot: now I prefer to wear shoes with a “zero drop” because they pack light, are cheap, and comfortable to me.
Walking
Walking strictly slower than running. Most things if done faster will give you more stress, but pure movement done fast both saves time and is healthy.
I tried to give up walking for Lent—except when inside or walking with a group of people, and I can walk when out of breath. Honestly I’ve forgotten to do this sometimes. But it’s fun and I’m getting better.
I also don’t have a sports bra, or any bras really because I’ve grown out of my old ones. This is definitely me being an idiot, but to cope I’ve discovered how to run with long gentle strides such that when the foot lands it loads the energy into the arc of my foot like a spring, using my leg and foot almost like a suspension, and this eliminates the jerky shockwave that would make my tits hurt. It’s easier on the knees and saves energy I think, but harder on the achilles tendon probably? (I don’t trust my biomechanical description here.)
warning that these things can have surprising tradeoffs. my energy-saving technique for descending stairs / slopes quickly also makes me more likely to slip, for instance, though I think I am better at catching myself than most people...
Caveat: people differ in body odor based on genetics, hormones, and armpit microbiome. I personally am privileged to not smell bad, therefore I don’t shower until my skin or hair starts to feel icky (a few days).
Experimenting with this requires a source of trustworthy feedback. Only try this if you have a friend who’s opinion you trust that you can ask whether or not you smell bad.
Practically it’s also worth noting that specific emotional states such as going to an event with a lot of social anxiety can make your body sweet in a way that’s smelly even if you normally don’t.
Ok. Well I don’t think there’s a robust nutrition engineering either. Except maybe whatever the gym bros are cooking up (iirc mostly macronutrients, some supplements, and don’t take certain research chemicals that will kill you). There is a lot of incredible engineering in making food tasty and cheap though.
Yes, the employee matching is “free money.” But transferring my money out of this to do a Roth IRA rollover was really annoying and I may have accidentally done it wrong and now I need to talk to a CPA. All this work for just for a matched $6000. Bureaucracy, friction, and poor UI are bad because it makes my adhd brain procrastinating on actually investing. (Incidentally this is also a reason to be wary of crypto as an investment—annoying to get on/off chain)
Retirement accounts are also often not able to invest in non-traditional assets like crypto or startup equity. They are less liquid.
I’ve reduced my “necessary” possessions to only what fits in a single tiny backpack. I’ve also cut my expenses substantially. I’ve saved so much money, I could retire very soon and travel the world in low cost-of-living countries, just living off the 4% of the principal. So by keeping my money in “retirement” accounts I am delaying the age at which I can retire because of the tax penalty! (I love working at manifold tho, and even if I left I’d probably just start my own startup, or something else ambitious, while being a nomad.)
maybe you don’t earn very much, but the future is coming fast so who knows when financial escape velocity will come for you
index funds
diversification has diminishing marginal returns.
if instead you just hand-pick a dozen of stocks of companies you think are underrated, spread out across industries, you’ve got most of the benefit of diversification already, but at higher EV
if you’re young, you should be taking on more risk for higher EV
the lesswrong zeitgeist in particular was ahead on crypto, covid, and AI. I have made money listening to it. what else will this community be ahead on?
if everyone buys the top 500 companies in the S&P, because “they’re supposed to,” then the top 500 are overvalued and you should buy the 501st company. (some mutual funds do this trade, and my rationalist friend who I think is smart, but who also lives in his mom’s basement, swears there’s still alpha in this. I don’t bother.)
The future will be weird
Markets are anti-inductive
Of course, you probably should not be thinking too much about optimal investments if you have very little to invest, or if you are in debt. Weigh the value of your time. If you are young the most important thing to invest in is in yourself—your skills, equipment, knowledge, etc.
A list of things that “everyone knows you should do” that I have gained value from NOT doing:
- health things recommended by “experts” that few people do and are therefore not lindy
- drink lots of water—diminishing marginal returns. if you have to get to pee at night you may be drinking too much
- sunglasses—outdoor light improves your eyesight and makes you more alert.
- diet stuff. eating a lot of vegetables, eating no vegetables, cutting salt, cutting fat, cutting carbs—nutrition is not solved, your body is a complex system, and your body is not like other bodies for reasons no one really knows.
- avoid fast food
- drink red wine
- don’t waste food
- avoid nicotine
- buy a car
- get a mortgage for a house
- save lots of money in a retirement account and buy index funds
- shower daily
- use shampoo
- wear shoes
- walk
- sleep under a blanket
I’m curious about you not doing these, since I’d unquestioningly accepted them, and would love for you to elaborate:
Regarding ‘diet stuff’, I mostly agree and like how Jay Daigle put it:
Skipping showering is easy actually.
Caveat: people differ in body odor based on genetics, hormones, and armpit microbiome. I personally am privileged to not smell bad, therefore I don’t shower until my skin or hair starts to feel icky (a few days).
I used to get dandruff a lot even back when I was showering daily. I saw r/HaircareScience saying sulfates and other chemicals in typical shampoos dry out the scalp and make it overcorrect by producing more oil. this matches my experience. Shampoo is like coffee; it creates dependency. Later, when I stopped showering daily, I did some experimentation and found that if I used shampoo, my scalp would actually feel worse the day after. So I just went cold turkey.
Now, my hair routine is: brush it every morning, use normal conditioner every time I shower, and use clarifying conditioner if my hair feels icky.
I saw people on r/parkour talk about running barefoot, so I gave it a try. The impact hurt at first, but I focused on landing on my forefoot, I immediately learned the technique and honed it over a few runs. Then I was able to use this technique even while having my shoes on.
At the time, I reasoned that this skill would allow me to be prepared in scenarios where I was wearing high heels or something, because I had the option to take them off and run. Which is true but moot: now I prefer to wear shoes with a “zero drop” because they pack light, are cheap, and comfortable to me.
Walking strictly slower than running. Most things if done faster will give you more stress, but pure movement done fast both saves time and is healthy.
I tried to give up walking for Lent—except when inside or walking with a group of people, and I can walk when out of breath. Honestly I’ve forgotten to do this sometimes. But it’s fun and I’m getting better.
I also don’t have a sports bra, or any bras really because I’ve grown out of my old ones. This is definitely me being an idiot, but to cope I’ve discovered how to run with long gentle strides such that when the foot lands it loads the energy into the arc of my foot like a spring, using my leg and foot almost like a suspension, and this eliminates the jerky shockwave that would make my tits hurt. It’s easier on the knees and saves energy I think, but harder on the achilles tendon probably? (I don’t trust my biomechanical description here.)
warning that these things can have surprising tradeoffs. my energy-saving technique for descending stairs / slopes quickly also makes me more likely to slip, for instance, though I think I am better at catching myself than most people...
Experimenting with this requires a source of trustworthy feedback. Only try this if you have a friend who’s opinion you trust that you can ask whether or not you smell bad.
Practically it’s also worth noting that specific emotional states such as going to an event with a lot of social anxiety can make your body sweet in a way that’s smelly even if you normally don’t.
Ok. Well I don’t think there’s a robust nutrition engineering either. Except maybe whatever the gym bros are cooking up (iirc mostly macronutrients, some supplements, and don’t take certain research chemicals that will kill you). There is a lot of incredible engineering in making food tasty and cheap though.
(Splitting into multiple comments)
Yes, the employee matching is “free money.” But transferring my money out of this to do a Roth IRA rollover was really annoying and I may have accidentally done it wrong and now I need to talk to a CPA. All this work for just for a matched $6000. Bureaucracy, friction, and poor UI are bad because it makes my adhd brain procrastinating on actually investing. (Incidentally this is also a reason to be wary of crypto as an investment—annoying to get on/off chain)
Retirement accounts are also often not able to invest in non-traditional assets like crypto or startup equity. They are less liquid.
I’ve reduced my “necessary” possessions to only what fits in a single tiny backpack. I’ve also cut my expenses substantially. I’ve saved so much money, I could retire very soon and travel the world in low cost-of-living countries, just living off the 4% of the principal. So by keeping my money in “retirement” accounts I am delaying the age at which I can retire because of the tax penalty!
(I love working at manifold tho, and even if I left I’d probably just start my own startup, or something else ambitious, while being a nomad.)
maybe you don’t earn very much, but the future is coming fast so who knows when financial escape velocity will come for you
diversification has diminishing marginal returns.
if instead you just hand-pick a dozen of stocks of companies you think are underrated, spread out across industries, you’ve got most of the benefit of diversification already, but at higher EV
if you’re young, you should be taking on more risk for higher EV
the lesswrong zeitgeist in particular was ahead on crypto, covid, and AI. I have made money listening to it. what else will this community be ahead on?
if everyone buys the top 500 companies in the S&P, because “they’re supposed to,” then the top 500 are overvalued and you should buy the 501st company. (some mutual funds do this trade, and my rationalist friend who I think is smart, but who also lives in his mom’s basement, swears there’s still alpha in this. I don’t bother.)
The future will be weird
Markets are anti-inductive
Of course, you probably should not be thinking too much about optimal investments if you have very little to invest, or if you are in debt. Weigh the value of your time. If you are young the most important thing to invest in is in yourself—your skills, equipment, knowledge, etc.