I’m curious now, given how accurate your forecasts have turned out and maybe taking into account Jonny’s remark that “the predictions are (to my eye) under-optimistic on capabilities”, what are the most substantive changes you’d make to your 2025-26 predictions?
Thanks for doing this! I had been hoping someone would do basically exactly this sort of analysis. :)
I’m curious now, given how accurate your forecasts have turned out and maybe taking into account Jonny’s remark that “the predictions are (to my eye) under-optimistic on capabilities”, what are the most substantive changes you’d make to your 2025-26 predictions?