let us assume, that the top leadership of ISIS is composed of completely rational and very intelligent individuals
Of the sort that casebash assures us cannot exist? The imaginary competence of fictional rational heroes? Top human genius level?
No. These all amount to assuming a falsehood.
The premise of this article is wrong. The ISIS are really just a bunch of idiots, and their apparent successes are only caused by the powers in the region being much more incompetent than ISIS
Another straw falsehood to set beside the first one. All of this rules out from the start any consideration of ISIS as they actually are. They are real people with a mission, no more and no less intelligent than anyone else who succeeds in doing what they have done so far.
There is no mystery about what ISIS wants. They tell the world in their glossy magazine), available in many languages, including English (see the link at the foot of that page). They tell the world in every announcement and proclamation.
“Rationalist”, however, seem incapable of believing that anyone ever means what they say. Nothing is what it is, but a signal of something else.
I have not seen any reason to suppose that they do not intend exactly what they say, just as Hitler did in “Mein Kampf”. They are fighting to establish a new Caliphate which will spread Islam by the sword to the whole world, Allahu akbar. All else is strategy and tactics. If their current funding model is unsustainable, they will change it as circumstances require. If their recruitment methods falter, they will search for other ways.
More useful questions would be: given their supreme goal (to establish a new Caliphate which will spread Islam by the sword to the whole world), what should they do to accomplish that? And how should we (by which I mean, everyone who wants Islamic universalism to fail) act to prevent them?
Another straw falsehood to set beside the first one
Of course it is! That’s the main point. Did it really not come across what I meant when I wrote that my goal was not to defend or attack the elements of the list? These are the most common theories about what isis wants, this is why they are in the list in the first place. I only listed #1 to counteract the others which were assuming more intelligence and rationalism from them most people would give credit.
I’m open to suggestions how this topic could be improved to better serve its intended purpose: to gather weird and unusual theories about what the true agenda of isis was, were they much more rational and more intelligent than most people give credit to them.
These are the most common theories about what isis wants
The theory that they want what they say they want is missing, but I don’t know what population you’ve been looking at to say what is most common.
to gather weird and unusual theories about what the true agenda of isis was
Your first three paragraphs suggested to me that you were interested in discussing the reality of ISIS. All weird and unusual theories are rendered false off the bat by their frankness about their aims and their actions in pursuing them. This is hearing hoofbeats and inviting people to consider what sort of weird and unusual creatures could possibly be causing them.
were they much more rational and more intelligent than most people give credit to them.
The whole post looks like a determination to fail the ideological Turing test.
what the true agenda of isis was, were they much more rational and more intelligent than most people give credit to them.
Ultimate goals are orthogonal to instrumental rationality and intelligence. Why does assuming they are rational and intelligent make you distrustful of their stated goals?
I’m not quite as bitter as you are about rationalists, but it’s certainly true that people get a lot wrong, and in particular, they’re generally bad at checking on whether their means are a good match for their purposes. The planning fallacy is a good though unflamboyant example of people getting things wrong even when they have years of evidence that they underestimate how long it takes to get things done.
My guess about ISIS is a mixture of a desire for personal power and drama, combined with some hope that Allah will help make the Caliphate work.
Thanks for the pointer to “The Fire Raisers”. Have an anti-Communism/anti-decadence story by Kipling on a similar theme: the Mother Hive.
Wow, that seems to be the most anvilicious support for conservatism I’ve ever seen!
Still, I enjoyed reading it, thank you for linking to it. Just getting to know this story was worth writing the article.
They are fighting to establish a new Caliphate which will spread Islam by the sword to the whole world, Allahu akbar. All else is strategy and tactics.
I don’t think that’s an accurate description. Fighting Western troops in Dadiq is important to ISIS because the Koran says that it’s supposed to happen. The Koran does constrain the range of possible strategies.
Fighting Western troops in Dadiq is important to ISIS because the Koran says that it’s supposed to happen. The Koran does constrain the range of possible strategies.
The Koran inspires ISIS in their supreme goal. If something in it can be matched to current events and opportunities, ISIS will milk that to the full, but I doubt that the Koran constrains them from any direction they may choose to prosecute their struggle.
The Koran requires ISIS to do whatever ISIS decide that the Koran requires them to do. Thus it is with all religions. It is impossible to apply a document more than a thousand years old and not interpret it, however much the religion itself may literally cling to the exact letter of the text.
The Koran requires ISIS to do whatever ISIS decide that the Koran requires them to do
Not really since the legitimicy of ISIS relies on them being perceived as a legimite caliphate and their own followers think they have a duty to dispose of an ISIS leader who wouldn’t run according to the Koran.
Their followers consider the Koran to be pretty clear about the fact that a caliph has to provide free housing and free healthcare to the citzens of the caliphate.
It’s also prevents high level ISIS personally to voice that they doubt that the prophecies are true.
ISIS declared the caliphate when an internal faction argued that that if the precursor organisation doesn’t declare a caliphate they don’t fulfill their Islamic duty.
let us assume, that the top leadership of ISIS is composed of completely rational and very intelligent individuals
I think that Val wants us to imagine that the elite of ISIS are smart guys who are well aware of the chances and risks of their plans, can place themselves in the shoes of their enemies and play them against each other (including usage of ideology) and likely look for the long time effect of their actions. And to think what their most likely motivations and goals are given the known facts.
Under those assumptions, it seems to be likely that their stated motivations and goals are the true ones. Especially if they are smart enough to realize they are likely to fail, the likely reason for them trying anyway is religious (moral, etc).
Especially if they are smart enough to realize they are likely to fail
Are they likely to fail? They are not going to fail unless the people who want them to fail (most of the world) make them fail. Being able to defeat them is not enough. They must actually be defeated. Is this going to happen?
Compare with startup founders. Most startups fail, yes? Therefore if every would-be startup founder is smart enough etc., then we don’t get Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, …
“Especially if they are smart enough to realize they are likely to fail”
Allah doesn’t put his thumb on the scales?
If they think Allah is going to a lend a hand, they would feel certain of near term victory. If not, they likely would still feel certain of a long term victory.
And even if you do end me before I end you, Another will take my place, and another
“More useful questions would be: given their supreme goal (to establish a new Caliphate which will spread Islam by the sword to the whole world), what should they do to accomplish that? And how should we (by which I mean, everyone who wants Islamic universalism to fail) act to prevent them?”
I think this is an interesting question. If you want to create a new islamic state you could do worse than siezing on the chaos caused by a civil war in Syria, and a weak state in Iraq. You will be opposed by
1)local interests, i.e. the governments of Iraq and Syria
2)The allies of local interests. In the case of Syria, Iran and Russia, Iraq the US and Britain.
I think 2 is quite interesting because the amount other nations intervene will be due in part to how much their population cares. I would argue that the attacks on Russia and France represent a strategic mistake because in both cases it encouraged those nations to be more active in their assault on ISIS.
Arguably the best way to discourage international interests from getting involved is increasing local costs. Make sure that any attacks on you will kill civillians, try to appear as legitimate and as boring as possible.
Essentially, if I wanted to run an evil fundamentalist oppressive state I would look as cuddly as possible at first. In fact, I would probably pretend to be on the side of the less religiously motivated rebels, so I can get guns and arms. Then, when Assad is toppled, make sure that any oil I have is available. My model here will be to look as much as Saudia Arabia as possible, as they can do horrifying things to their own citizens provided they remain a key strategic ally in the region. Real politik will trumph over morality provided you can keep western eyes off of you.
The goal, always, would be to be as non threatening as possible to squeeze as much arms as you can out of western allies (and Russian allies too, if you can work it, but if you topple Assad you probably can’t), which puts you in a position to expand your interests. Then you need to provoke other nations to invade you, so you can plausibly claim to be the wronged party in any conflict where the US feels obliged to pick sides.
Essentially, if I wanted to run an evil fundamentalist oppressive state I would look as cuddly as possible at first.
Nobody set’s out to run an evil fundamentalist oppressive state but certain people set out to run a evil fundamentalist oppressive state.
Apart from that you ignore the fact of what it means to claim to be a caliphate. ISIS got a lot of power through the act of founding a self-proclaimed caliphate.
I’m a little confused by your first point (I guess you’re pointing out a grammar/spelling error, but the only one I note is that you’ve used “a” instead of “an”, and evil starts with a vowel so, no I don’t understand that point).
You’re second point is correct, I meant to mention that as a cost. By appearing more moderate I cost myself support. I’ve sort of hand waved the idea that I can just convince everyone to fight for me in the first place, which is obviously a difficult problem! That said I think you could be a little less obviously evil initially and still attract people to your fundamentalist regime.
Nobody set’s out to run an evil fundamentalist oppressive state but certain people set out to run a goodfundamentalist oppressive state.
By appearing more moderate I cost myself support.
The question whether or not to declare a caliphate is binary. Either you do or you don’t. Then there’s a host of obligations with declaring a caliphate.
Of the sort that casebash assures us cannot exist? The imaginary competence of fictional rational heroes? Top human genius level?
No. These all amount to assuming a falsehood.
Another straw falsehood to set beside the first one. All of this rules out from the start any consideration of ISIS as they actually are. They are real people with a mission, no more and no less intelligent than anyone else who succeeds in doing what they have done so far.
There is no mystery about what ISIS wants. They tell the world in their glossy magazine), available in many languages, including English (see the link at the foot of that page). They tell the world in every announcement and proclamation.
“Rationalist”, however, seem incapable of believing that anyone ever means what they say. Nothing is what it is, but a signal of something else.
I have not seen any reason to suppose that they do not intend exactly what they say, just as Hitler did in “Mein Kampf”. They are fighting to establish a new Caliphate which will spread Islam by the sword to the whole world, Allahu akbar. All else is strategy and tactics. If their current funding model is unsustainable, they will change it as circumstances require. If their recruitment methods falter, they will search for other ways.
More useful questions would be: given their supreme goal (to establish a new Caliphate which will spread Islam by the sword to the whole world), what should they do to accomplish that? And how should we (by which I mean, everyone who wants Islamic universalism to fail) act to prevent them?
I recommend a reading of Max Frisch’s play “The Fire Raisers”).
Of course it is! That’s the main point. Did it really not come across what I meant when I wrote that my goal was not to defend or attack the elements of the list? These are the most common theories about what isis wants, this is why they are in the list in the first place. I only listed #1 to counteract the others which were assuming more intelligence and rationalism from them most people would give credit.
I’m open to suggestions how this topic could be improved to better serve its intended purpose: to gather weird and unusual theories about what the true agenda of isis was, were they much more rational and more intelligent than most people give credit to them.
The theory that they want what they say they want is missing, but I don’t know what population you’ve been looking at to say what is most common.
Your first three paragraphs suggested to me that you were interested in discussing the reality of ISIS. All weird and unusual theories are rendered false off the bat by their frankness about their aims and their actions in pursuing them. This is hearing hoofbeats and inviting people to consider what sort of weird and unusual creatures could possibly be causing them.
The whole post looks like a determination to fail the ideological Turing test.
Ultimate goals are orthogonal to instrumental rationality and intelligence. Why does assuming they are rational and intelligent make you distrustful of their stated goals?
I’m not quite as bitter as you are about rationalists, but it’s certainly true that people get a lot wrong, and in particular, they’re generally bad at checking on whether their means are a good match for their purposes. The planning fallacy is a good though unflamboyant example of people getting things wrong even when they have years of evidence that they underestimate how long it takes to get things done.
My guess about ISIS is a mixture of a desire for personal power and drama, combined with some hope that Allah will help make the Caliphate work.
Thanks for the pointer to “The Fire Raisers”. Have an anti-Communism/anti-decadence story by Kipling on a similar theme: the Mother Hive.
Wow, that seems to be the most anvilicious support for conservatism I’ve ever seen! Still, I enjoyed reading it, thank you for linking to it. Just getting to know this story was worth writing the article.
I don’t think that’s an accurate description. Fighting Western troops in Dadiq is important to ISIS because the Koran says that it’s supposed to happen. The Koran does constrain the range of possible strategies.
The Koran inspires ISIS in their supreme goal. If something in it can be matched to current events and opportunities, ISIS will milk that to the full, but I doubt that the Koran constrains them from any direction they may choose to prosecute their struggle.
No. It also requires ISIS to do things like providing free housing and free healthcare to people in it’s territory and a host of other choices.
The Koran requires ISIS to do whatever ISIS decide that the Koran requires them to do. Thus it is with all religions. It is impossible to apply a document more than a thousand years old and not interpret it, however much the religion itself may literally cling to the exact letter of the text.
Not really since the legitimicy of ISIS relies on them being perceived as a legimite caliphate and their own followers think they have a duty to dispose of an ISIS leader who wouldn’t run according to the Koran.
Their followers consider the Koran to be pretty clear about the fact that a caliph has to provide free housing and free healthcare to the citzens of the caliphate.
It’s also prevents high level ISIS personally to voice that they doubt that the prophecies are true.
ISIS declared the caliphate when an internal faction argued that that if the precursor organisation doesn’t declare a caliphate they don’t fulfill their Islamic duty.
I think that Val wants us to imagine that the elite of ISIS are smart guys who are well aware of the chances and risks of their plans, can place themselves in the shoes of their enemies and play them against each other (including usage of ideology) and likely look for the long time effect of their actions. And to think what their most likely motivations and goals are given the known facts.
Under those assumptions, it seems to be likely that their stated motivations and goals are the true ones. Especially if they are smart enough to realize they are likely to fail, the likely reason for them trying anyway is religious (moral, etc).
Are they likely to fail? They are not going to fail unless the people who want them to fail (most of the world) make them fail. Being able to defeat them is not enough. They must actually be defeated. Is this going to happen?
Compare with startup founders. Most startups fail, yes? Therefore if every would-be startup founder is smart enough etc., then we don’t get Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, …
No-one ever won a war by wishing their enemies would recognise they can’t win. ISIS have a cause for which they are not merely striving to become stronger or making an extraordinary effort, they are shutting up and doing the impossible.
“Especially if they are smart enough to realize they are likely to fail”
Allah doesn’t put his thumb on the scales?
If they think Allah is going to a lend a hand, they would feel certain of near term victory. If not, they likely would still feel certain of a long term victory.
“More useful questions would be: given their supreme goal (to establish a new Caliphate which will spread Islam by the sword to the whole world), what should they do to accomplish that? And how should we (by which I mean, everyone who wants Islamic universalism to fail) act to prevent them?”
I think this is an interesting question. If you want to create a new islamic state you could do worse than siezing on the chaos caused by a civil war in Syria, and a weak state in Iraq. You will be opposed by
1)local interests, i.e. the governments of Iraq and Syria 2)The allies of local interests. In the case of Syria, Iran and Russia, Iraq the US and Britain.
I think 2 is quite interesting because the amount other nations intervene will be due in part to how much their population cares. I would argue that the attacks on Russia and France represent a strategic mistake because in both cases it encouraged those nations to be more active in their assault on ISIS.
Arguably the best way to discourage international interests from getting involved is increasing local costs. Make sure that any attacks on you will kill civillians, try to appear as legitimate and as boring as possible.
Essentially, if I wanted to run an evil fundamentalist oppressive state I would look as cuddly as possible at first. In fact, I would probably pretend to be on the side of the less religiously motivated rebels, so I can get guns and arms. Then, when Assad is toppled, make sure that any oil I have is available. My model here will be to look as much as Saudia Arabia as possible, as they can do horrifying things to their own citizens provided they remain a key strategic ally in the region. Real politik will trumph over morality provided you can keep western eyes off of you.
The goal, always, would be to be as non threatening as possible to squeeze as much arms as you can out of western allies (and Russian allies too, if you can work it, but if you topple Assad you probably can’t), which puts you in a position to expand your interests. Then you need to provoke other nations to invade you, so you can plausibly claim to be the wronged party in any conflict where the US feels obliged to pick sides.
Nobody set’s out to run an
evil fundamentalist oppressive state
but certain people set out to run aevil fundamentalist oppressive state
.Apart from that you ignore the fact of what it means to claim to be a caliphate. ISIS got a lot of power through the act of founding a self-proclaimed caliphate.
I’m a little confused by your first point (I guess you’re pointing out a grammar/spelling error, but the only one I note is that you’ve used “a” instead of “an”, and evil starts with a vowel so, no I don’t understand that point).
You’re second point is correct, I meant to mention that as a cost. By appearing more moderate I cost myself support. I’ve sort of hand waved the idea that I can just convince everyone to fight for me in the first place, which is obviously a difficult problem! That said I think you could be a little less obviously evil initially and still attract people to your fundamentalist regime.
Right I wanted to say:
The question whether or not to declare a caliphate is binary. Either you do or you don’t. Then there’s a host of obligations with declaring a caliphate.