CFAR handbook, p. 43 (“further resources” section of the “inner simulator” chapter, which the “murphyjitsu” unit is a part of):
Mitchell, Russo, and Pennington (1989) developed the technique which they called “prospective hindsight.” They found that people who imagined themselves in a future world where an outcome had already occurred were able to think of more plausible paths by which it could occur, compared with people who merely considered the outcome as something that might occur. Decision making researcher Gary Klein has used this technique when consulting with organizations to run “premortems” on projects under consideration: assume that the project has already happened and failed; why did it fail? Klein’s (2007) two-page article provides a useful summary of this technique, and his (2004) book The Power of Intuition includes several case studies.
Mitchell, D., Russo, J., & Pennington, N. (1989). Back to the future: Temporal perspective in the explanation of events. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2, 25-38. http://goo.gl/GYW6hg
CFAR handbook, p. 43 (“further resources” section of the “inner simulator” chapter, which the “murphyjitsu” unit is a part of):
Hm, this does not rule out independent discovery, but is evidence against it.
I notice that I’m confused why they would re-name it if it isn’t independent discovery.