Dunno if this is meant to be inspired by/a formalization of [my previous position against intelligence](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/puv8fRDCH9jx5yhbX/johnswentworth-s-shortform?commentId=jZ2KRPoxEWexBoYSc). But if it is meant to be inspired by it, I just want to flag/highlight that this is the opposite of my position because I’d say intelligence does super well on this hypothetical task because it can just predict 50/50 and be nearly optimal. (Which doesn’t imply low marginal return to intelligence because then you could go apply the intelligence to other tasks.) I also think it is extremely intelligent [perjorative] of you to say that this sort of thing is common in archaeology and political forecasting.
People read more into this shortform than I intended. It is not a cryptic reaction, criticism, or reply to/of another post.
Ah, fair enough! I just thought given the timing, it might be that you had seen my post and thought a bit about the limitations of intelligence.
I don’t know what you mean by intelligent [pejorative] but it sounds sarcarcastic.
The reason I call it intelligent is: Intelligence is the ability to make use of patterns. If one was to look for patterns in intelligent political forecasting and archaeology, or more generally patterns in the application of intelligence and in the discussion of the limitations of intelligence, then what you’ve written is a sort of convergent outcome.
It’s [perjorative] because it’s bad.
To be clear, the low predictive efficiency is not a dig at archeology. It seems I have triggered something here.
Whether a question/domain has low or high (marginal) predictive effiency is not a value judgement, just an observation.
I mean I’m just highlighting it here because I thought it was probably a result of my comments elsewhere and if so I wanted to ping that it was the opposite of what I was talking about.
If it’s unrelated then… I don’t exactly want to say “carry on” because I still think it’s bad, but I’m not exactly sure where to begin or how you ended up with this line of inquiry, so I don’t exactly have much to comment on.
Dunno if this is meant to be inspired by/a formalization of [my previous position against intelligence](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/puv8fRDCH9jx5yhbX/johnswentworth-s-shortform?commentId=jZ2KRPoxEWexBoYSc). But if it is meant to be inspired by it, I just want to flag/highlight that this is the opposite of my position because I’d say intelligence does super well on this hypothetical task because it can just predict 50/50 and be nearly optimal. (Which doesn’t imply low marginal return to intelligence because then you could go apply the intelligence to other tasks.) I also think it is extremely intelligent [perjorative] of you to say that this sort of thing is common in archaeology and political forecasting.
People read more into this shortform than I intended. It is not a cryptic reaction, criticism, or reply to/of another post.
I don’t know what you mean by intelligent [pejorative] but it sounds sarcarcastic.
To be clear, the low predictive efficiency is not a dig at archeology. It seems I have triggered something here.
Whether a question/domain has low or high (marginal) predictive effiency is not a value judgement, just an observation.
Ah, fair enough! I just thought given the timing, it might be that you had seen my post and thought a bit about the limitations of intelligence.
The reason I call it intelligent is: Intelligence is the ability to make use of patterns. If one was to look for patterns in intelligent political forecasting and archaeology, or more generally patterns in the application of intelligence and in the discussion of the limitations of intelligence, then what you’ve written is a sort of convergent outcome.
It’s [perjorative] because it’s bad.
I mean I’m just highlighting it here because I thought it was probably a result of my comments elsewhere and if so I wanted to ping that it was the opposite of what I was talking about.
If it’s unrelated then… I don’t exactly want to say “carry on” because I still think it’s bad, but I’m not exactly sure where to begin or how you ended up with this line of inquiry, so I don’t exactly have much to comment on.
I am not sure what ‘it’ refers to in ‘it is bad’.