Hm. Galaxy-brained idea for how to use this as a springboard to make prediction markets go mainstream:
Convince friendly prominent alignment research institutions (e. g. MIRI, the AI Futures project) to submit their models to the platform.
Socially pressure AGI labs to submit their own official models there as well, e. g. starting from Anthropic. (This should be relatively low-cost for them; at least, inasmuch as they buy their own hype and safety assurances.)
Now you’ve got a bunch of high-profile organizations making implicit official endorsements of the platform.
Move beyond the domain of AI, similarly starting with friendly smaller organizations (EA orgs, etc.) then reaching out to bigger established ones.
Everyone in the world ends up prediction-market-pilled.
???
Civilizational sanity waterline rises!
(Note that it follows the standard advice for startup growth, where you start in a very niche market, gradually eat it all, then expand beyond this market, iterating until your reach is all-pervading.)
Yeah this one has been pretty high on my list (or, a fairly similar cluster of ideas)
Hm. Galaxy-brained idea for how to use this as a springboard to make prediction markets go mainstream:
Convince friendly prominent alignment research institutions (e. g. MIRI, the AI Futures project) to submit their models to the platform.
Socially pressure AGI labs to submit their own official models there as well, e. g. starting from Anthropic. (This should be relatively low-cost for them; at least, inasmuch as they buy their own hype and safety assurances.)
Now you’ve got a bunch of high-profile organizations making implicit official endorsements of the platform.
Move beyond the domain of AI, similarly starting with friendly smaller organizations (EA orgs, etc.) then reaching out to bigger established ones.
Everyone in the world ends up prediction-market-pilled.
???
Civilizational sanity waterline rises!
(Note that it follows the standard advice for startup growth, where you start in a very niche market, gradually eat it all, then expand beyond this market, iterating until your reach is all-pervading.)